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IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 income call Transcript | 000-M96 Latest Questions and Study Guide

a close up of a logo: IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript © supplied by using The Motley fool IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 revenue name Transcript


Q3 2021 revenue call

Oct 20, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET

  • organized Remarks
  • Questions and solutions
  • name participants
  • organized Remarks:


    Welcome, and thanks for standing via. at the moment, all members are in a pay attention-best mode. modern-day conference is being recorded. you probably have any objections, you may disconnect at present.

    Now i will turn the assembly over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    thanks. here is Patricia Murphy, and that i'd want to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2021 revenue presentation. i am right here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's chairman and chief government officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's senior vice chairman and chief economic officer. [Inaudible] organized remarks on the IBM investor web page inside a few hours, and a replay will be accessible by this time the following day.

    i may remind you the separation of Kyndryl is expected to be achieved at the beginning of December. And in consequence, their third-quarter efficiency displays IBM, together with the managed infrastructure services business and their pre-separation section structure. feedback made in this presentation may be regarded ahead-searching beneath the private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve components that may cause their genuine outcomes to vary materially.


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    this text is a transcript of this convention name produced for The Motley idiot. while they strive for their silly choicest, there can be blunders, omissions, or inaccuracies during this transcript. as with every their articles, The Motley fool does not count on any responsibility to your use of this content material, and they strongly motivate you to do your personal analysis, including taking note of the call your self and studying the business's SEC filings. Please see their phrases and conditions for additional particulars, including their obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of legal responsibility.

    The Motley idiot has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley fool has a disclosure coverage.

    assistance about these components is included in the enterprise's SEC filings. The presentation also comprises non-GAAP measures to deliver additional info to traders. as an instance, they latest salary and signings growth in regular currency. furthermore, to provide a view in line with their go-forward business, we'll center of attention on steady-foreign money growth, adjusting for the divested companies for the impacted strains of complete revenue, cloud, and their geographic performance.

    We provided reconciliation charts for these and different non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, 8-ok submitted to the SEC. With that, i could turn the name over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    thank you, Patricia, and due to all of you for becoming a member of us today to discuss their third-quarter efficiency. At their contemporary investor briefing, they laid out their hybrid cloud and AI approach and their method to offering robust free money circulation and sustainable mid-single-digit profits growth starting in 2022. For the last yr and a half, we've been taking actions and investing to execute their approach. This quarter, they mentioned modest income growth and delivered solid free cash circulation, generated over $11 billion of adjusted free money stream over the last yr.

    We also made tangible progress in their key increase areas of software and consulting. With that, i will be able to well known that in different areas of the company, they fell wanting their expectation; methods during the end of the z15 cycle and global know-how features traces pausing ahead of the general public submitting of the form 10 and separation of Kyndryl. they have made extra progress within the Kyndryl separation within the final two weeks and announced the distribution date of November three, which is forward of their usual time table. they have executed a lot to prepare Kyndryl for this second.

    We took structural moves to Strengthen the profit profile. The administration crew is in area. worker transfers and the significant majority of client contract improvements are complete. They at the moment are much more definite that keeping apart this business creates value through focus.

    That referred to, the individuals of GTS had been part of IBM for a very long time. hence, it's with mixed feelings that we're reporting on this section for the ultimate time. And just the day past, you heard from Martin and his administration group more desirable method and value proposition. The separation is only one of the various moves we're taking to focus their enterprise on hybrid cloud and AI and increase their monetary profile.

    To offer you some color on IBM's performance except Kyndryl, they delivered 2% income increase this quarter. That compares to 1% in the 2d quarter and minus 1% within the first quarter. These results mirror the potent demand for know-how items and capabilities that help their purchasers develop their digital transformation. Their software revenue boom changed into led by means of purple Hat, safety, automation, and Cloud Paks throughout their software.

    international enterprise features, quickly to be IBM Consulting, accelerated earnings growth to a double-digit price. application and consulting are their two leading drivers of growth, and this changed into actually proper this quarter. i will be able to now extend on the growth they made within the third quarter toward their future. As I even have described in the past, they now have a platform-centric approach, making an attempt to meet consumers at any place they're of their experience.

    The platform they now have developed is open, secure, and versatile and continues to benefit traction within the marketplace. they have more than three,500 valued clientele using their hybrid cloud platform, no longer most effective fuels their purple Hat salary efficiency but additionally offers a great base for the multiplier impact throughout software and functions. IBM Consulting is helping to pressure this platform adoption and this quarter, had over one hundred eighty new red Hat engagements. Their groups work alongside their clients to co-create business products and options.

    thus far, we've achieved greater than 4,000 IBM garage engagements. within the closing quarter, extra consumers are leveraging their platform capabilities and their potential to unlock business cost. introduced DISH is the use of IBM utility and capabilities to aid automate their cloud-native 5G network; Cloud Pak for network Automation, which is used with AI, automation, and orchestration capabilities used by DISH to satisfactory-tune speed degrees or coverage areas depending on the wants of selected consumers. building on their partnership spanning half a century, they announced credit score Mutuel is growing an IBM expertise and talents hub in France.

    the new hub will help credit Mutuel leverage AI, records, cloud, and IBM Z. additionally introduced a new contract with CaixaBank, some of the biggest banks in Europe, to boost its digital capabilities with IBM Cloud for monetary features and the brand new IBM Cloud Multizone location in Spain. CaixaBank will leverage IBM Consulting trade advantage to move to a hybrid cloud approach for modernization. This quarter, they persevered to leverage their ecosystem to pressure what they described at their investor briefing as a flywheel of boom.

    that is the greater they grow, the greater their companions grow and vice versa. We're partnering with opt for GSIs to bring joint solutions to market. This quarter, Atos introduced the setup of the Atos Cloud core of Excellence to assist monetary services valued clientele with their digital transformation journey. even have persevered momentum and earnings increase from their partnership with industry-leading ISVs and hyperscalers.

    [Inaudible], we're partnering with Adobe to help the British pharmacy chain, Boots, seriously change their e-commerce platform and convey new digital client experiences. while they put money into partnerships, they additionally invest organically and inorganically to carry innovation. They made sixteen acquisitions considering April 2020, including BoxBoat and Bluetab in the third quarter. These will strengthen their hybrid cloud consulting ability.

    in the equal method, they are organically setting up new innovations that count number to their clients. i could mention a few new introductions beginning with their innovations in utility. within the quarter, purple Hat added a new rearchitectured version of the purple Hat Ansible automation platform. pink Hat additionally launched a brand new version of its superior cluster administration of Kubernetes.

    These two products are now extra tightly integrated, which helps power hybrid cloud automation. additionally, the existing version of purple Hat OpenShift grew to become frequently available. IBM Cloud Paks run any place that OpenShift runs. They use normal functions comparable to logging, metering, monitoring, and security and are infused with improvements and capabilities from IBM research to bring a whole lot greater value than containerized code.

    in this quarter, they launched Cloud Pak for security, SaaS, in addition to new models of Cloud Pak for Integration, Cloud Pak for community Automation, and the Maximo application suite. also currently announced their Environmental Intelligence software suite. Product in response to their Cloud Pak for records and leveraging their climate capabilities is designed to aid companies measure, display screen, and predict environmental effects however additionally to assist simplify ESG reporting. As you understand, they made a dedication to be web-zero greenhouse gas emissions by using 2030.

    we are able to leverage this answer to notify management as they take action to reach this intention. Their programs company, they recently launched Power10. Power10 has interesting hardware improvements, together with a processor specifically optimized for facts-intensive workloads akin to SAP S/4HANA. during the quarter, they also announced a Telum processor.

    This 7-nanometer microprocessor is engineered to support customers gain insights from their information at the speed of the workload. at the equal time, now they have persisted to look quantum computing as a promising enviornment of possibility if you want to play out within the long run. Their teams are difficult at work to circulate this unique box ahead. traders will have a chance to gain knowledge of more about this inside the subsequent month.

    Let me immediately highlight one ESG announcement they made currently. To help protect the rights and privacy of cloud valued clientele, they now have joined other most important groups in the tech industry, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP, to set up the relied on cloud ideas. This initiative is in step with their lengthy-standing focus on trust and transparency. before I transition to Jim, let me reiterate three messages they conveyed all the way through their investor briefing.

    First, they are optimizing their portfolio to pressure mid-single-digit earnings increase beginning in 2022. 2d, they are increasing their focus and agility to enhanced serve purchasers. Third, they are producing robust free cash move that allows their investments whereas providing beautiful shareholder returns. This quarter, they took one more step towards this future.

    while a lot continues to be to be completed, they are assured they are able to obtain their midterm aims. Jim, over to you.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief economic Officer

    Thanks, Arvind. Over the remaining 12 months, they have been very clear on both most important measures of success: earnings boom and free cash flow generation. i could birth with these key metrics. within the third quarter, their earnings of $17.6 billion become up as mentioned and down modestly at regular forex.

    aside from the content a good way to go to Kyndryl, IBM's income grew 2% with an improving style over the ultimate three quarters. Their cash era was up for the quarter, 12 months to date, and trailing one year. This excludes the cash fees associated with the separation of Kyndryl and the structural movements initiated at the end of remaining year. taking a look at their earnings from a phase viewpoint, world business functions growth accelerated to 11%, and their software profits become up 2%.

    These businesses should be their growth drivers into the long run and collectively characterize over 70% of their publish-separation income profile. systems declined this quarter by 12%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. throughout their segments, IBM's cloud salary turned into up 11% over ultimate year, and it's up 17%, with the exception of the cloud salary going to Kyndryl. this is led by means of international company functions and Cloud and Cognitive software, that are up 27% and 28%, respectively, over that duration.

    relocating on to the profit dynamics. Pretax margin is up 10 foundation facets sequentially however down a hundred basis aspects year to year. As they saw the demand environment improving in the fourth quarter of remaining yr, they now have been increasing investments in knowledge, innovation, and their ecosystem, organically and thru acquisition. in the third quarter, they endured to aggressively hire, bringing in technical talent in red Hat and extremely expert skills in Consulting.

    We're scaling substances in their garages to provide a extra experiential consulting and earnings approach. We're including customer success managers to assist shoppers get essentially the most cost out of their IBM answer, and we're expanding investments in R&D to carry improvements in their hybrid cloud platform, AI, and emerging applied sciences like Quantum. The structural actions they initiated on the end of closing year are funding some of these investments. Roughly two-thirds of the discount rates from these actions address stranded fees from the separation and create monetary flexibility to be reinvested for growth.

    The other one-third tackle the international technology features income profile ahead of the separation, and we're seeing growth in the GTS gross margin. Their third-quarter working tax rate got here in about 5%, which is reduce than what they noted ultimate quarter. This turned into as a result of discrete tax benefits that befell earlier than they up to now expected as they put together for the Kyndryl separation. it be important to word that their view of the total-year working tax fee has now not changed since January.

    i may touch upon their free cash move and balance sheet position. They generated $5 billion of adjusted free money movement 12 months thus far and $11.1 billion over the final 12 months. both exclude money impacts of about $1.8 billion for the structural actions initiated late ultimate 12 months and transaction expenses associated with the separation of Kyndryl. Their adjusted free money stream over the final yr is up about $300 million with increase in their underlying business efficiency mitigated by means of a money tax headwind.

    Our money steadiness on the end of September turned into $8.4 billion, up a little bit from June but down about $6 billion from 12 months-conclusion. Over the identical length, their debt is down $7 billion. apart from debt reduction yr so far, they have now used $three billion for acquisitions and over $four billion for shareholder returns through dividends. Their solid cash generation and disciplined monetary management offers the fuel to put money into their business and pay dividend.

    Turning to the segments. Cloud and Cognitive utility salary grew 2%. we've a powerful habitual income base in application. Renewal prices for subscription and help had been up once more this quarter, contributing to the boost in their utility deferred earnings stability over the remaining yr.

    by means of company area, Cloud and records structures income become up 9%, whereas Cognitive functions declined 1%, and Transaction Processing platforms become down 9%. They currently shared plans to supply new application revenue classes starting in the fourth quarter. they are able to mix their two application growth vectors, Cloud and information structures and Cognitive functions, and within that, deliver superior transparency into efficiency and traits by means of company area. searching across these growth vectors, red Hat, safety, and automation fueled earnings boom this quarter.

    pink Hat earnings turned into up 17% on a traditionally normalized foundation and 23% all-in. Going ahead, they will center of attention on this all-in boom given these views will converge over the subsequent yr as the influence of the deferred salary impairment dissipates. crimson Hat salary growth was driven by means of double-digit increase in each infrastructure and software development and emerging know-how. And they had more than 40% boom in OpenShift habitual earnings.

    boom in automation become led by means of key solutions like Cloud Pak for Integration, and Cloud Pak for business Automation, in addition to a strong start to their exact Instana and Turbonomic acquisition. Their information and AI income became down modestly. They had strength in Cloud Pak for information, weather, and Maximo and declines in on-premise records ops portfolio and supply chain as it wrapped on a robust third quarter remaining year. protection remains a key strategic focal point enviornment as we're assisting clients adopt zero have confidence architecture with Cloud Pak for security and export services.

    increase in protection income persisted this quarter, led by using probability administration application and capabilities as customers respond to the evolving cybersecurity environment. in the spirit of transparency, i'll deliver a few further metrics into their efficiency. Their annual recurring income, or ARR, throughout these utility increase vectors grew 7%. here's a superb indication of the progress in their hybrid cloud and AI client adoption.

    And we've over $8 billion in software cloud salary over the final year, which is up 28%. Turning to their software cost vector, transaction processing platforms. They deliver flexibility to their consumers and how they buy this mission-important software. Over the final 18 months, they now have considered a preference for opex over capex.

    This continues to power perpetual licenses in choose of extra consumption-like model. but importantly, they once more had robust renewal fees in their transaction processing platform application. this is a superior indication that shoppers see lengthy-term price in these choices. looking at earnings for the application phase, they increased pre-tax margin sequentially, whereas they proceed to put money into new innovation and their ecosystem.

    relocating to global enterprise services. profits boom accelerated to 11%. Even with the amazing profits performance, their ebook-to-invoice ratio became better than one. Their GBS price proposition is aligned to their shoppers' priorities.

    We're assisting their purchasers capture new increase opportunities and enhance operational flexibility and productivity with hybrid cloud and AI. They leverage their incumbency, IBM know-how, and strategic partnerships to modernize their purposes and digitally radically change their corporations at scale. GBS profits growth is led by using their cloud providing. GBS cloud revenue now represents more than $7 billion of profits over the remaining yr and is up 27%.

    This efficiency displays the continued investments we're making in their purple Hat, Microsoft, and AWS practices. As Arvind referred to, they brought over one hundred eighty purple Hat customer engagements this quarter. This contributes to total purple Hat-related signings of near $three.5 billion considering the acquisition. inside their 11% revenue boom, consulting turned into up 16%.

    there is strong demand right here. We're leveraging their expertise and ecosystem companions to seriously change their valued clientele' company procedures and modernize applications in accordance with OpenShift. international processing features income became up 19%. Their offerings in finance, procurement, and talent and transformation all grew at double-digit prices.

    more and more, we're connecting consulting and BPO to transform customer workflows the usage of hybrid cloud and AI. finally, in utility management, income increase accelerated to 5%, off a previous yr that become impacted by the pandemic. boom this quarter became pushed through administration of applications in a multi-cloud ambiance. i could shift to GBS earnings profile, where their strong revenue efficiency drove gross and pre-tax profit greenback boom.

    Our gross and pre-tax margins better sequentially but had been down yr to yr. With the market possibility they see, we're making conscious selections to make investments forward of income. they are investing in strategic partnerships, new offerings and practices, and integrating and scaling out their acquisition. As i mentioned previous, we're investing in capabilities for GBS.

    in the ultimate a number of months, we've improved their go-to-market substances and scaled their practices developed round their ecosystem companions and red Hat. With a aggressive labor market, here is putting some drive on their labor prices, together with higher acquisition and retention charges, which is not yet mirrored in their existing pricing. They predict to catch this value in future engagements, however it will take time to appear in their margin profile. So now turning to the systems phase.

    earnings efficiency changed into down 12% pushed through product cycles in IBM Z and vigour, mitigated by means of increase in Storage. In IBM Z, earnings declined 33% in the ninth quarter of z15 availability. while z15 program to this point continues to exceed the robust z14 cycle, the magnitude of that overachievement has come down a couple of aspects this quarter. IBM Z is a lasting platform given market wants for scalability, reliability, protection, and extra these days, cloud-native building.

    These characteristics, along side their more moderen flexible consumption offerings, further exhibit the price of IBM Z platform inside their hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Their profits became down. Late in the quarter, they all started the rollout of their subsequent-era Power10 beginning with excessive-conclusion gadget. As all the time, new vigour expertise is delivered over time, and the mid-latitude and low-conclusion Power10 techniques could be purchasable during 2022.

    Storage delivered eleven% earnings increase pushed via demand from hyperscalers for their tape items and growth in entry-degree, all-flash storage following their product refresh previous this 12 months. taking a look at income in this section. profit margin was down, reflecting where we're within the IBM Z and Power10 product cycles. So now let me turn to international technology services.

    profits become down 5%, which is a 1-element deceleration from ultimate quarter. The 12 months-to-year trajectory of income generated from the backlog has been improving over the closing few quarters. in the first half of the yr, they additionally had modest improvements in client-primarily based business volumes and assignment pastime, which contributes to in-length income. however, this quarter, purchasers paused on new challenge activity as the separation became approaching, ensuing in the salary deceleration.

    on the time they decided to separate their managed infrastructure services business, they undertook a series of movements to enrich the margin, earnings, and cash technology profile of the business, including a substantial charge within the fourth quarter of 2020. The outcomes of those actions will also be viewed within the margin development over the remaining a number of quarters. And this quarter, they again accelerated gross margin, up a hundred and twenty basis elements. Kyndryl will take this more advantageous profit profile into the separation.

    i may wrap up with a view of their progress yr thus far after which focus on one of the vital fourth-quarter dynamics. As they enter 2021, they laid out their expectations for the year for their two most vital measures: profits and free money move. They expected to develop salary for IBM at genuine prices with underlying steady-foreign money performance stronger in the 2nd half than the primary. They expected to develop revenue for IBM, except for Kyndryl, at steady foreign money.

    And they anticipated to generate $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free money movement. That, of direction, excludes the cash impacts of the Kyndryl transaction fees and the structural movements i would outlined earlier. Now we're three quarters into the yr, and they just accomplished the last full quarter of IBM on a pre-separation foundation. it be a fine time to take a photo against those aims.

    throughout the first three quarters, their profits at genuine charges is up 2%. Their revenue growth trajectory at consistent currency has been improving all through the 12 months. And except for Kyndryl, their third-quarter income changed into up 2% yr to 12 months, and their adjusted free money move over the ultimate three hundred and sixty five days is $eleven.1 billion. considering the beginning of the yr, they now have streamlined their go-to-market.

    we've improved investments and closed 10 acquisitions. These movements and investments will assist drive salary growth, but it surely takes time to entirely understand the benefit. common, their consequences over the primary three quarters of 2021 mirror progress we've got been making toward their midterm mannequin. all over the fourth quarter, they are able to complete the separation of Kyndryl, which is on target for November three.

    The fourth quarter, for this reason, is a big milestone as they transition to the longer term IBM. Now let me provide some color on three areas for the fourth quarter: first, the earnings trajectory of the brand new segments; second, i'll touch upon their tax expense; and third, the impact of the separation of Kyndryl to IBM's consolidated effects for November and December on an working foundation. i may delivery with the income trajectory of their segments as they document them within the fourth quarter. As all the time, i could focus on it on a continuing-foreign money basis.

    however i'll remind you, the U.S. dollar continues to support and can be a 1- to 2-factor headwind to increase according to current spot costs. To supply a more robust view of traits, i may center of attention on the increase costs before the revenue from incremental revenue to Kyndryl. They see endured momentum in their increase vectors in software and Consulting.

    We expect their application profits growth cost to increase versus the third quarter. And in IBM Consulting, they once more predict double-digit earnings increase. In infrastructure, given product cycle dynamics, they predict pretty constant performance with the third quarter, which turned into a high single-digit decline. 2d, tax.

    i discussed the timing of discrete tax advantages came about sooner than they in the past anticipated as they prepared for the Kyndryl separation. They still predict their full-year tax rate to be within the low teenagers range, in accordance with what they indicated returned in January. it truly is their all-in price, including discrete tax items, and applies a fourth-quarter tax rate within the excessive teens. and then eventually, IBM's fourth-quarter consolidated consequences will reflect the Kyndryl separation.

    i may body the revenue and profits per share implications based on the final couple of years. Kyndryl historically represented simply under $5 billion of income in the fourth quarter, with about $3.5 billion of that in November and December. at the equal time, they estimate they will get about $350 million from incremental income in these two months from the new industrial relationship. The web affect to IBM consolidated outcomes is a discount of about $3 billion of earnings for November and December due to the separation.

    And for those two months, they estimate an impact of $0.20 to $0.25 of revenue per share including the brand new industrial relationship. on the time of separation, Kyndryl will be introduced in discontinued operation, with the balance of IBM in continuing operation. they are able to deliver a historic restatement of continuing operations before the conclusion of the year. they are on the threshold of the future IBM.

    Video: IBM misses Q3 revenue estimates (Yahoo! Finance)

    We predict to exit the fourth quarter ready to deliver their mid-term mannequin, a mid-single-digit revenue growth, and cumulative free money move of $35 billion in 2022 to 2024. So with that, they are going to be chuffed to take your questions. i'll turn it lower back to Patricia.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor members of the family

    thank you, Jim. earlier than they start the study guide mp;A, i'd want to point out a couple of objects. First, several references were made nowadays to IBM's new phase structure, which could be constructive immediately ahead of the Kyndryl separation. They provided information on the new phase scope and naming in an article posted to their investor web site originally of this month.

    2d, supplemental assistance is provided on the end of the presentation, [Inaudible] contains the schedule of the availability of recast financial counsel for IBM post separation. and eventually, as at all times, I ask you to chorus from multi-part questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

    Questions & solutions:


    thank you. at the present, they can start the question-and-answer session of the conference. [Operator instructions] Their first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with bank of the us. Sir, your line is open.

    Wamsi Mohan -- bank of the usa Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    sure, thank you. Arvind, there looks to be a lot of concerns across the specific separation when it comes to competencies disruptions. You stated on this call that you just saw some hesitation or pause in spending. Do you consider -- given the adjustments that you have put in area additionally with income comp, do you consider comfy about the trajectory of the enterprise once you get previous this threshold of near-time period disruption that you highlighted? And if I could, Jim, you referred to about $2.5 billion one-time bump from Kyndryl in 2022.

    can you might be calibrate that number for 2021 as neatly? that could be valuable. thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    whats up, Wamsi, thanks for the query. look, i might like to be very clear. I suppose that any -- and i would no longer use the notice disruption, Wamsi. i would use the be aware that there may be a slight pause, which is the words that I used in the -- my organized remarks.

    I believe there's a moderate pause, and it will be the end of third quarter, perhaps the beginning of fourth quarter. And they see that fall in general in hardware and in Kyndryl itself. incidentally, simply to add some color, why do you see that? there was loads of hardware that truly does move through Kyndryl. and a lot of americans, many of their consumers think of that as being an alternate method that they have got procured infrastructure during the past.

    So, it be not a shock given the dimension of the connection with all of those customers that they see a pause in some of them. incidentally, I suppose that that's the finished nature of it. when I look at their pipeline, I analyze their revenue compensation, I examine their executive compensation, i'm completely confident that this will be well behind us with the aid of the starting of '22, that means with the aid of January, neatly behind us. And as they also get into a new product cycle on one of the crucial hardware within the first half of '22, I consider that'll put it absolutely behind us.

    And so, my view is that they dangle firm to their '22 and forward projections. And this has really got no lengthy-term or systemic issues that I see, both within the numbers, in the pipelines, and in the specific behavior of valued clientele and their people.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief economic Officer

    Thanks, Wamsi. To your 2nd question, be aware lower back at -- on October four, at their Investor Day, they talked concerning the powerful strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl going ahead, of which I think, at that time, they shared about $2.5 billion of annualized business predominantly structured round their excessive-cost, mission-essential routine salary of software and additionally some in their infrastructure phase around hardware purchases and round their infrastructure support. That become a full-yr annualized view. in case you look at fourth quarter, we're going to have two months' value of that in 2021.

    And they estimate that it really is about $350 million to $four hundred million usual. So in case you go back to what I noted on October 4, the 2022 in comparison to 2021, one year versus two months is, provide or take, about a bit bit over $2 billion. And that interprets into the 3 aspects of incremental growth one time above their mid-single-digit mannequin in midterm.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor family members

    Thanks, Wamsi. Let's go to the next query.


    Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein. Your line is open.

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    sure. thank you. and that i consider, Arvind, you touched on this within the first query, but perhaps let me ask it a bit greater directly. So, this quarter, IBM grew at 1.9% for RemainCo versus the assessment of consistent currency at minus 3.5%.

    The comparisons get about 2 or 3 aspects extra problematic looking into subsequent 12 months, and you have to accelerate your increase fee to get to mid-single-digit boom with the aid of 2 or three elements. So readily, adjusting for compares, the growth rate has to increase about 5 percent points relative to what you did this quarter to hit that mid-single-digit target. beyond a product cycle in mainframe and UNIX, given you stated type of taking time for investments to repay, what is going to apparently fairly trade the boom profile adjusting for comps by using potentially 4, 5, or 6 facets over the next few quarters? and the way long do you continue to expect to make investments, i.e., have power on working margins, certainly in application and GBS going forward? thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    good enough. Thanks, Toni. i may take the primary part of that, after which i could look at Jim for the second part of the question. So, Toni, there may be three ingredients of it.

    First, let me renowned, yes, their boom prices ought to increase, so absolute confidence about it. They are not saying we're performed. The three aspects with a view to make contributions to the boom fee -- and i believe lots of what you were pointing to become toward the utility boom cost. i may say it comes from three issues.

    One, we're seeing improvements in their organic, meaning the application they have already got. They proceed to look that. They predict that to be able to Strengthen the application increase costs with the aid of a number of points. I may not truly say the upper band as a result of I don't are expecting that the three facets i discussed, all of them, will all return at their higher band.

    So, let's say, 1 or 2 features from the organic growth price. Two, they can continue to make acquisitions. So not handiest do those they have made hold contributing because they are growing well into double-digit growth charges or the brand new ones they make will additionally make contributions to that. think of that to be in the identical latitude.

    The third one, as we're making lots of changes in their revenue compensation, as well as within the makeup of their revenue group, they talk about the garages. They discuss customer success managers leading to greater experiential and greater technical selling. They accept as true with that'll force more suitable deployment and hence, faster purchases in that segment. And so, all of these collectively will contribute toward a a lot-more advantageous boom price in the software section up to the mid-single digit as I consider you're stating in some of your math.

    i am no longer going to debate is it three%, four%, or 5%. chuffed to do that when they have a little bit more time. and i'll move it over to Jim for the second part of the query.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief fiscal Officer

    To that factor, I cannot resist but go into the numbers. So, let's simply -- Toni, wonderful question. thanks very a whole lot. Let's discuss this quarter.

    once more, IBM ex-Kyndryl delivered about 2% boom. by the way, it truly is an accelerating style as they referred to within the organized remarks from about flat during the first half to now becoming 2%. sure, off a simpler evaluate, they renowned that. however let's take a glance at the profits contribution analysis of what contributed to that 2 elements, and now i could tie it returned to what they stated on October four as their mid-single-digit increase expense mannequin.

    We talked about throughout their three segments, first, we've an enhancing growth profile as they shift to bigger cost, greater boom markets over 70% of their company in application and in Consulting, which, by the way, additionally includes a higher cost routine profits circulate, that these two segments will make contributions all 5 features of IBM's growth, by the way, with enhancing working margins, which i could get into at the conclusion. The infrastructure segment, which is excessive-price, mission-crucial covering their mainframe business and infrastructure assist business, turned into projected to be flat over time because it follows innovation cycle. So, as they deliver out innovation subsequent 12 months, they firmly agree with and confident that we're going to grow there. but over a three-yr length, it truly is about flat however a major cash generator.

    So, you bought two increase vectors, one value vector, two delivering boom, one offering cash generation. Now let's analyze how the third quarter played out. towards that 70-plus % of their two increase vectors that centered a 5-point contribution, they delivered 4.5 facets of earnings increase to IBM. They fell about 0.5 factor brief, and that is the reason in the application enviornment as a result of they overachieved in GBS.

    we now have a powerful booklet of company in GBS, now IBM Consulting, and they see that continuing to play out. They got work to do on application, but we're making underlying enterprise efficiency as a result of, as you all comprehend, you see the facts. Their deferred earnings tailwind dissipates over time. And they misplaced about 1 element of increase in software simply because of the deferred profits tailwind, which skill that the underlying enterprise of their pro forma IBM application continues to enhance.

    Why can they feel assured relocating forward? simply adding to probably the most points of Arvind, number one, we've been 5 quarters in a row now with potent renewal quotes. 80% of their software company is habitual salary, excessive-value routine income. and you see that in their deferred profits and deferred salary balance up $800 million year over 12 months. number two, they see first-class acceleration in ARR.

    And incidentally, NRR north of one hundred% again for the third consecutive quarter. And we're starting to see best acceleration in Cloud Paks. And most significantly, as they talked about three quarters ago, they are now beginning to enter the early materials of their ELA cycle. to be able to proceed into 2022 and the first half of 2023.

    So, they consider pretty assured concerning the two increase vectors. where they ignored is, based on being on the back conclusion of a very a hit mainframe cycle, the infrastructure segment took 2.5 aspects of boom faraway from IBM ex-Kyndryl. So plus 4.5 points in opposition t the goal of 5%, they misplaced 2.5 facets in infrastructure. And so that you can reasonable out over time as they convey new innovation.

    after which eventually, just wrapping up, in your working margin comment, they talked about entering this yr, two most crucial measures, earnings growth, free money stream era. We're achieving on each of those. They stated that free cash circulation era become going to be vital as a result of they crucial to gas funding in innovation and in IBM Consulting because they noticed amazing demand. We're playing that out consciously.

    we'll see that Strengthen as they get into 2022, however we're nevertheless riding that cash. and i'll wrap up, year thus far through third quarter, growing to be salary, growing to be revenue ex-Kyndryl at consistent currency. We're growing to be gross and pre-tax bucks. We're starting to be pre-tax margin, and we're growing trailing twelve months free cash circulation.

    So it truly is the model that they put in place, and they feel fairly confident as they enter 2022.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor members of the family

    thank you, Toni. Victor, may they please take the next question?


    Our subsequent query comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    sure, thanks. Arvind, you referenced the positives in Kyndryl and hardware in the quarter, but utility efficiency was also gentle of expectations. So, can you focus on what drove the shortfall in Cloud and Cognitive utility and the place you see opportunities for superior execution inside that application business?

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    yes. Thanks, Katy. sure, certainly, as -- in reality, even Jim mentioned that they fell maybe 0.5 point in need of their own expectations, and they could have performed more advantageous. right here is the place I see it doing enhanced.

    First, the one that carried out exactly in accordance with what they desired become pink Hat. crimson Hat gave us 17%, which is fairly plenty what they desired and expected. If I now look at their Transaction Processing Platform, it was a little bit below what they want because they now have been asserting that, in an extended-term model, that may still be greater mid-single-digit decliner. but this quarter, it become a excessive single-digit decliner.

    We think that as they get past as a result of it truly is coupled, i would not call it similar, however it is coupled to probably the most infrastructure cycles, I are expecting that to return back beginning in early '22 or perhaps late in '21. Then on their class it really is nowadays referred to as AI purposes, they have been minus 1%. There, i might are expecting us to get back to mid-single-digit growth. Now you variety of say, if I put all of it together, do they predict to look a tiny bit -- I call it a tiny bit of pausing from people because of every thing going on? yes.

    Two, we're turning their incentive models. I spoke on it on the prior question very in brief. Their incentive models for their sales teams are going to be very heavily tuned toward application going ahead in '22. That, I believe, will result in more suitable -- plenty more suitable efficiency since the handiest manner that they're going to get anyplace near the goal incentives is to make their utility number.

    it is probably for the first time that it really is been true in a long, long term at IBM. So, Katy, it's variety of my view on what took place there and the way they will enhance going forward.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor relations

    Thanks, Katy. Let's go to the subsequent question, please. 


    Our subsequent query comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    hello, thanks. or not it's good to communicate to you all. i needed to ask on the GBS facet. so that did speed up double-digit income boom.

    sounds like fourth quarter, you are expecting that, too, nevertheless it did come at a better can charge. So, i'm just curious on the gross margin percentage front. So, i'm curious, some of the self assurance that you can reprice to offset the greater charge of delivery, is there possibility that those charges might persist here given all the demand side that you're seeing? thank you.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief financial Officer

    Yeah. Tien-Tsin, here is Jim. i may take that as they move forward. As I brought up past and Arvind commented within the organized remarks, they do see a extremely powerful demand ambiance available.

    As they had been going via fourth quarter, they called a extremely conscious approach. GBS, now IBM Consulting, once more, plays a really quintessential function to their hybrid cloud platform-centric enterprise model. Why? since it drives scale and adoption to their platform, and it also pulls IBM technology while taking knowledge of the ecosystem and partnership and ability and means. So, they began aggressively including ability, skill, competencies, ecosystem partnerships, and scaling acquisitions.

    I believe they just announced today their eighth GBS acquisition in the ultimate 12 months ordinary. So, it become a mindful method. And they consider that that flywheel impact of GBS that turns into the multiplier of using their platform, pulling their software, and riding a extremely strong financial equation for their ecosystem companions is fundamental in their lengthy-term strategy. Now with that mentioned, they saw margins down 310 foundation features.

    We noticed pre-tax margins down 110 basis elements. within that, notwithstanding, they grew gross earnings bucks, and they grew pre-tax greenbacks. We're about producing boom in right line and round generating cash contribution. And GBS delivered that nowadays.

    i might additionally point out that GBS accelerated their margins quarter to quarter incredibly. Pretax margins have been up 5 aspects quarter to quarter, and they've been accelerating their gross margins sequentially each quarter this yr. So, they delivered over 13 points of pre-tax margin in the third quarter; and their mannequin, as they observed on October four, changed into low young adults. So, they consider pretty at ease.

    We see an excellent e-book of company, and they proceed to see, in fourth quarter, IBM Consulting supplying double-digit income increase and margin dollar and income dollar and cash dollar contribution whereas pulling their software and hybrid cloud platform.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor relations

    Thanks, Tien-Tsin. Let's go to the subsequent query, please.


    Our subsequent query comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Your line is open.

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    thank you very lots. My question, on the grounds that lots of them have been answered, there's only 1 of them, and that is the affect of bigger labor charges. No count where you appear, labor expenses are going bigger. and that i do see that in your prepared slides that you just did deliver that your signings have been up 3%.

    So, should still they believe about, as time rolls ahead, you are going to put in force greater labor fees that enhance and go greater? Or are they in fact cloth adequate so they may still be modeling some alterations into your cash flows? Or how should still they kind of feel about that as you're employed in the course of the enterprise because it's a stunning dynamic and fluid condition with labor charges? thank you.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief government Officer

    So, Jim, great query. And by the way, i might inform you that I don't suppose that this year is entertaining. perhaps there may be a splash greater considerations happening, but I do not consider it be unique. I be aware 2001 really well.

    I remember 2007 just earlier than the fiscal crisis. here's a continuous movie in the expertise business. Now you spoke of the three% signings increase. i would not appear at the 3%.

    i would examine their e-book-to-invoice ratio, which is 1.1. And so, ebook-to-invoice offers a higher signal of what the demand is for their forward-looking profits and demand in their IBM Consulting company. Now, appear, labor must be managed. they now have a worldwide labor model.

    We put individuals in every single place. And as Jim simply mentioned in solutions to the prior question that, sure, should you do have inflation in your labor charge, there is a part of it it is going to expense via for that side of the business. In all of the relaxation of the business, in fact, i'm not so worried about labor charge. i am worried about getting the right skill perhaps, however it really is at all times a worry that I even have, and that i've been paranoid about that for 30 years.

    it is now not entertaining. and i consider it be similar to many of your businesses, Jim, like no longer simply yours however all your colleagues right here on this call. The appropriate talent is far more important, and their labor charge is vital. within the end of the day, it's perhaps 15%, 20% of the whole cost and cost it really is type of important toward the different corporations since you can manipulate the rest.

    So, net reply to you is, no, or not it's no longer anything that has to be modeled in. I don't believe so. but they at all times should be concerned about it when it comes to how will they expense, how can they get the labor pools, the place can they put the labor pools, and all of these features.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    unbelievable. thanks, Jim. Let's go to the next query, please.


    Our next question comes from Keith Bachman, bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    hello. Many thanks for taking the query. i needed to ask first on Cloud Paks that you just seem to be suggesting that this is going to be a key or probably the most many enablers to pressure growth. and i changed into hoping you could clarify a little bit why Cloud Paks since it sounds very similar to bundling, which IBM and a lot of corporations were doing for years.

    So, wish to are attempting to bear in mind a bit bit why Cloud Pak is diverse from the ancient bundling that IBM has been doing. after which 2d, if I may simply ask, Jim, a question I've asked earlier than is on utility maintenance. a good quarter on effortless compares and i just desired to get your innovations on the durability of the utility maintenance, not whether or not it's important. but is it, basically, a growth class as they look out within GBS over the subsequent two years, three years? Many thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    ok. So, Keith, i'll take the first a part of that query on Cloud Paks. So, Cloud Paks don't seem to be simply bundled. they're now not simply containerizing software.

    i could let you know right away, if all you do is bundled software, you will in reality get a price deflation. If all you do is containerized utility, there might be no plus or minus. or not it's simply a special way of providing it. So i'll take probably the most Cloud Paks and maybe use it as a short example.

    If I take their Cloud Pak for data, if I now flip around and inform you that no matter if they take some of their integration application or no matter if they take a database utility like Db2, and that's the reason all you deliver through that, you are correct, it's neither plus nor minus. I think it is going to dwell the place it's. besides the fact that children, or not it's no longer simply putting those in as options. loads of the Cloud Pak for records is actually new innovation.

    It comprises strategies around information textile. It includes methods round how do you federate statistics both from public clouds and from other repositories which are likely now not IBMs inside the customer's on-premise environment. It consists of the statistics catalog. It contains these the way to be able to do some competitors without even relocating the information.

    That new content brought to one of the most present content material, so they take knowledge of their incumbency, however they get raise as a result of there's more usage common for these applied sciences than there was earlier than, is why they are so excited about Cloud Paks and where it offers us both. sure, some of it is just going to be a circulate, but loads of it is definitely improved usage. And hopefully, that variety of made the example clear on how they are driving innovation into the portfolio with that one illustration. So Jim, i'll deliver it to you to handle the -- I have no idea no matter if to lift upkeep in ARR or NRR.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief monetary Officer

    I consider, Keith -- and i'm deciphering your question given you utilized it to GBS, and they have had this dialogue many quarters correctly so, and you're speaking about software management functions, AMS. If i am no longer answering the right question, please get again to Patricia, and they are able to stream forward from there. however AMS, as they now have stated for a handful of quarters, they obtained lower back to growth, up 5%, accelerated that boom, albeit, as they noted within the prepared remarks, off a an awful lot less difficult evaluate during the height of the pandemic last yr in third quarter. but it was up this quarter as they had boom in offerings, which modernize the client's functions and as they circulation them to a hybrid cloud.

    We referred to their utility administration having a massive incumbency value in a hybrid cloud platform-centric mannequin. Why? as a result of what we've got seen and discovered over the last two-plus years after the acquisition of pink Hat is that, one, they have now built up a $three.5 billion booklet of company round their crimson Hat observe in GBS from a useless start throughout the acquisition. And they developed that up. Of that $three.5 billion, over three-quarters of that publication of business is in AMS money owed.

    second, AMS -- excuse me, GBS driving that flywheel effect I stated prior is truly -- offers over one-third of their cloud profits -- Cloud Pak revenue growth each quarter, and inside that, eighty% are AMS debts. So, there's a causality and a correlation right here between their amazing incumbency base, us having trade enterprise system talents and the technical potential to be the customer's depended on associate. To stream them alongside their event to cloud, AMS is a really imperative part. So, they noticed good increase.

    And incidentally, their penetration of AMS cloud undertaking, be aware, they referred to in the past this predominantly being an on-prem business utility concentration problem. They continue to make growth. We're -- about close to 40% of their AMS company is now cloud, and we're capitalizing on crimson Hat. We're catalyzing on utility modernization.

    And we're capitalizing on very robust ecosystem partnerships with SAP S/4HANA, to identify one, as they move forward.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    Very decent. thanks, Keith. Victor, let's take one remaining query.


    definitely, their final question comes from David Grossman with Stifel. Your line is open.

    David Grossman -- Stifel fiscal Corp. -- Analyst

    thank you, and thanks for squeezing me in here. just two definitely brief ones. First, how a whole lot, if any, of the earnings with Kyndryl is undertaking-primarily based, which can be based on their personal execution? and then secondly, Jim, you outlined the ELA cycle taking off, I consider, early 2022. possibly you may share with us just how a whole lot of a headwind it's been and which segments it's impacted most.


    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief economic Officer

    David, thanks very an awful lot for the query. I believe i may take both, after which Arvind can wrap it up right here typical. First, around Kyndryl. So, in case you go lower back to October four, on the Investor Day, which they had been relatively clear, and they pointed out they will proceed that transparency into 2022 across the external sales with the effective strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl, they referred to about, on a full-yr groundwork, $2.5 billion, deliver or take.

    And in 2022, in the event you got 12 months versus two months in 2021, it'd be about $2 billion of incremental or about three points. within that, David, the majority of it's in utility. And a majority of that is annuitized-primarily based excessive-value, mission-important-based mostly routine income. So, if you're brooding about do they have any deflationary impacts around that $2-plus billion on the software side, which consists of the majority of it, no.

    The 2nd component is they now have about -- annualized about $0.5 billion related to their infrastructure help and hardware. On the infrastructure aid, it be once again an annuitized-primarily based enterprise standard. And relating to hardware, in their strategic relationship, as they set Kyndryl up, they have given them aggressive and component of aged stock refresh application, so they now have little or no hardware purchases over doubtless the subsequent 18 months to two years given they just went through a huge asset refresh. So long reply to your question, but I do not think they have loads of influence relocating ahead in opposition t that.

    2d, around the ELA cycle, you know this fairly well. it's typically a 3-plus yr. The dynamics of customer buying behaviors exchange over time, however they think very confident. The good news is here is they have lots of headroom.

    We're simply starting the early part of that in fourth quarter. as a way to predominantly play out in 2022 and then will also extend early into 2023 as they stream forward. And if you examine their transactional-connected undertaking, now they have been making potent efficiency growth in their annuitized-primarily based enterprise with the renewal charges, and their on-prem transactional enterprise has struggled, primarily all over the pandemic. this could bolster that as they circulate forward.

    And most significantly, they think assured in the investments in innovation and what we're bringing to market with their modernized and containerized Cloud Pak offerings optimized on accurate of their hybrid cloud crimson Hat platform that we're decent. So, with that, let me turn it over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    Thanks, Jim. appear, first, i might want to thank all of you to your questions. i thought they have been in fact stepping into the details; and hopefully, their answers helped you consider their business a great deal improved. Let me simply make a couple of feedback to wrap it up.

    i hope you took away is that they continue to make this progress this quarter within the key areas. both myself and Jim highlighted them in their key areas of growth and in their cost vectors as they go ahead, above all searching into '23. however we'll additionally renowned that they at all times have more to do. Importantly, they are on the brink of the IBM of the longer term, and they expect to exit the year ready that offers on their mid-time period model beginning in 2022.

    it truly is the sustainable mid-single-digit income boom and the increasing free cash movement that fuels the entire investments. So, with that, I seem to be ahead to speaking to all of you once more.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor family members

    Arvind, thanks. Victor, let me turn it back to you to shut out the name.


    [Operator signoff]

    length: 67 minutes

    call participants:

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief monetary Officer

    Wamsi Mohan -- bank of america Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    David Grossman -- Stifel economic Corp. -- Analyst

    greater IBM evaluation

    All salary name transcripts

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