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IBM IBM questions

IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 earnings call Transcript | 00M-243 Free PDF and boot camp

a close up of a logo: IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript © offered through The Motley idiot IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 revenue name Transcript


Q3 2021 revenue call

Oct 20, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET

  • organized Remarks
  • Questions and solutions
  • name members
  • organized Remarks:


    Welcome, and thanks for standing by. at present, all participants are in a hear-handiest mode. modern day convention is being recorded. if in case you have any objections, you can also disconnect at this time.

    Now i will turn the assembly over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may additionally start.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor family members

    thanks. here's Patricia Murphy, and i'd want to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2021 profits presentation. i'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's chairman and chief government officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's senior vice president and chief economic officer. [Inaudible] organized remarks on the IBM investor web page within a couple of hours, and a replay may be accessible via this time tomorrow.

    i could remind you the separation of Kyndryl is expected to be accomplished originally of December. And consequently, their third-quarter efficiency displays IBM, including the managed infrastructure features enterprise and their pre-separation section structure. comments made during this presentation may be considered ahead-searching beneath the inner most Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve elements that might trigger their exact effects to differ materially.


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    this article is a transcript of this conference name produced for The Motley idiot. whereas they attempt for their silly optimum, there could be blunders, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. as with every their articles, The Motley idiot doesn't count on any responsibility to your use of this content, and they strongly motivate you to do your personal analysis, including listening to the name your self and studying the company's SEC filings. Please see their terms and conditions for further details, together with their obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of legal responsibility.

    The Motley fool has no place in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley idiot has a disclosure policy.

    guidance about these factors is blanketed in the company's SEC filings. The presentation additionally contains non-GAAP measures to provide more information to investors. as an example, they latest salary and signings increase in steady forex. furthermore, to deliver a view per their go-forward company, they will focus on constant-foreign money boom, adjusting for the divested businesses for the impacted traces of complete earnings, cloud, and their geographic efficiency.

    We supplied reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures on the conclusion of the presentation, 8-k submitted to the SEC. With that, i may flip the name over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    thanks, Patricia, and because of all of you for becoming a member of us these days to talk about their third-quarter efficiency. At their latest investor briefing, they laid out their hybrid cloud and AI strategy and their method to supplying mighty free money movement and sustainable mid-single-digit profits boom starting in 2022. For the ultimate yr and a half, we've been taking actions and investing to execute their strategy. This quarter, they said modest income boom and delivered strong free money circulate, generated over $11 billion of adjusted free money circulate over the ultimate yr.

    We additionally made tangible growth in their key boom areas of software and consulting. With that, i'll well known that in other areas of the company, they fell in need of their expectation; programs all through the end of the z15 cycle and global know-how capabilities strains pausing ahead of the general public submitting of the form 10 and separation of Kyndryl. we've made additional progress within the Kyndryl separation in the ultimate two weeks and introduced the distribution date of November 3, which is ahead of their original time table. now they have carried out a lot to put together Kyndryl for this moment.

    We took structural moves to enhance the income profile. The administration team is in area. employee transfers and the titanic majority of customer contract innovations are comprehensive. They are now much more definite that keeping apart this company creates cost through center of attention.

    That spoke of, the people of GTS had been a part of IBM for a very long time. hence, it is with blended feelings that we're reporting on this phase for the closing time. And simply the day past, you heard from Martin and his administration group more desirable method and price proposition. The separation is only one of the many moves they are taking to focus their company on hybrid cloud and AI and increase their financial profile.

    To provide you with some colour on IBM's performance except for Kyndryl, they delivered 2% salary boom this quarter. That compares to 1% within the 2d quarter and minus 1% in the first quarter. These results mirror the mighty demand for know-how products and features that assist their valued clientele boost their digital transformation. Their application earnings boom turned into led by means of purple Hat, protection, automation, and Cloud Paks throughout their utility.

    global company capabilities, quickly to be IBM Consulting, accelerated profits increase to a double-digit price. utility and consulting are their two leading drivers of increase, and this become definitely proper this quarter. i will now expand on the development they made within the third quarter toward their future. As I even have described during the past, we've a platform-centric approach, making an attempt to satisfy shoppers wherever they're in their experience.

    The platform they now have developed is open, relaxed, and versatile and continues to profit traction in the industry. they have greater than three,500 shoppers using their hybrid cloud platform, now not most effective fuels their pink Hat income efficiency but additionally gives an exceptional base for the multiplier impact throughout utility and functions. IBM Consulting is helping to pressure this platform adoption and this quarter, had over 180 new crimson Hat engagements. Their teams work alongside their customers to co-create enterprise products and solutions.

    so far, they now have performed more than 4,000 IBM storage engagements. in the remaining quarter, extra shoppers are leveraging their platform capabilities and their knowledge to unencumber business price. introduced DISH is the usage of IBM application and features to support automate their cloud-native 5G network; Cloud Pak for network Automation, which is used with AI, automation, and orchestration capabilities used by DISH to first-rate-tune velocity tiers or coverage areas depending on the wants of certain consumers. building on their partnership spanning half a century, they announced credit score Mutuel is creating an IBM technology and capabilities hub in France.

    the new hub will aid credit score Mutuel leverage AI, statistics, cloud, and IBM Z. additionally announced a brand new contract with CaixaBank, one of the most largest banks in Europe, to enhance its digital capabilities with IBM Cloud for financial functions and the brand new IBM Cloud Multizone location in Spain. CaixaBank will leverage IBM Consulting trade potential to move to a hybrid cloud strategy for modernization. This quarter, they persevered to leverage their ecosystem to power what they described at their investor briefing as a flywheel of growth.

    it is the more they develop, the greater their partners grow and vice versa. We're partnering with select GSIs to carry joint solutions to market. This quarter, Atos introduced the setup of the Atos Cloud middle of Excellence to help financial functions shoppers with their digital transformation experience. also have endured momentum and revenue growth from their partnership with business-main ISVs and hyperscalers.

    [Inaudible], they are partnering with Adobe to support the British pharmacy chain, Boots, radically change their e-commerce platform and bring new digital client experiences. while they put money into partnerships, they also invest organically and inorganically to carry innovation. They made sixteen acquisitions given that April 2020, together with BoxBoat and Bluetab within the third quarter. These will support their hybrid cloud consulting capacity.

    in the identical method, they are organically constructing new improvements that matter to their shoppers. i could point out just a few new introductions beginning with their innovations in utility. in the quarter, pink Hat added a brand new rearchitectured version of the crimson Hat Ansible automation platform. crimson Hat additionally launched a new edition of its advanced cluster administration of Kubernetes.

    These two products are now extra tightly built-in, which helps power hybrid cloud automation. furthermore, the latest version of crimson Hat OpenShift grew to become generally available. IBM Cloud Paks run any place that OpenShift runs. They use general services reminiscent of logging, metering, monitoring, and protection and are infused with innovations and capabilities from IBM research to deliver a good deal more price than containerized code.

    in this quarter, they launched Cloud Pak for safety, SaaS, as well as new models of Cloud Pak for Integration, Cloud Pak for network Automation, and the Maximo utility suite. also lately announced their Environmental Intelligence software suite. Product in response to their Cloud Pak for statistics and leveraging their weather capabilities is designed to assist companies measure, computer screen, and predict environmental results but additionally to assist simplify ESG reporting. As you be aware of, they made a dedication to be net-zero greenhouse gasoline emissions through 2030.

    we are able to leverage this solution to inform administration as they take action to reach this goal. Their techniques company, they recently launched Power10. Power10 has entertaining hardware improvements, together with a processor particularly optimized for records-intensive workloads similar to SAP S/4HANA. throughout the quarter, they additionally announced a Telum processor.

    This 7-nanometer microprocessor is engineered to support purchasers benefit insights from their statistics on the speed of the workload. at the equal time, we've got persisted to look quantum computing as a promising area of chance on the way to play out in the long term. Their groups are hard at work to movement this enjoyable field ahead. investors will have an opportunity to be taught greater about this within the next month.

    Let me right now highlight one ESG announcement they made these days. To aid offer protection to the rights and privacy of cloud valued clientele, they now have joined different foremost agencies in the tech trade, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP, to establish the depended on cloud concepts. This initiative is in line with their long-standing focus on have confidence and transparency. earlier than I transition to Jim, let me reiterate three messages they conveyed throughout their investor briefing.

    First, they are optimizing their portfolio to pressure mid-single-digit earnings increase starting in 2022. 2nd, we're increasing their focal point and agility to more desirable serve consumers. Third, they are generating powerful free money flow that enables their investments whereas proposing beautiful shareholder returns. This quarter, they took one other step towards this future.

    whereas tons remains to be done, we're assured they will obtain their midterm ambitions. Jim, over to you.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief monetary Officer

    Thanks, Arvind. Over the last yr, we've been very clear on both most crucial measures of success: revenue boom and free money flow generation. i'll birth with these key metrics. in the third quarter, their salary of $17.6 billion was up as mentioned and down modestly at regular foreign money.

    except for the content material as a way to go to Kyndryl, IBM's income grew 2% with an enhancing trend over the last three quarters. Their money technology turned into up for the quarter, year thus far, and trailing three hundred and sixty five days. This excludes the money charges associated with the separation of Kyndryl and the structural movements initiated at the conclusion of ultimate 12 months. looking at their income from a segment viewpoint, world business features boom accelerated to 11%, and their application salary became up 2%.

    These companies should be their increase drivers into the future and together represent over 70% of their put up-separation salary profile. methods declined this quarter through 12%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. across their segments, IBM's cloud income become up eleven% over closing year, and it's up 17%, excluding the cloud profits going to Kyndryl. here's led by means of global company functions and Cloud and Cognitive application, that are up 27% and 28%, respectively, over that period.

    relocating on to the income dynamics. Pretax margin is up 10 groundwork elements sequentially however down a hundred basis features 12 months to year. As they saw the demand atmosphere enhancing in the fourth quarter of remaining year, they have been expanding investments in capabilities, innovation, and their ecosystem, organically and through acquisition. in the third quarter, they endured to aggressively rent, bringing in technical skill in crimson Hat and totally professional expertise in Consulting.

    We're scaling supplies in their garages to deliver a greater experiential consulting and revenue approach. We're including customer success managers to help valued clientele get probably the most price out of their IBM answer, and we're expanding investments in R&D to carry improvements in their hybrid cloud platform, AI, and rising applied sciences like Quantum. The structural actions they initiated on the end of final 12 months are funding some of these investments. Roughly two-thirds of the discount rates from these actions tackle stranded costs from the separation and create monetary flexibility to be reinvested for increase.

    The different one-third handle the world technology services income profile ahead of the separation, and we're seeing development within the GTS gross margin. Their third-quarter working tax fee got here in about 5%, which is reduce than what they pointed out remaining quarter. This was due to discrete tax benefits that came about sooner than they previously expected as they put together for the Kyndryl separation. it's vital to word that their view of the full-yr working tax expense has not changed considering the fact that January.

    i'll touch upon their free cash stream and stability sheet place. They generated $5 billion of adjusted free money move 12 months so far and $eleven.1 billion over the last yr. each exclude cash affects of about $1.8 billion for the structural actions initiated late closing 12 months and transaction charges linked to the separation of Kyndryl. Their adjusted free cash move over the final year is up about $300 million with boom in their underlying enterprise efficiency mitigated by using a cash tax headwind.

    Our cash steadiness on the end of September changed into $eight.4 billion, up a little from June however down about $6 billion from 12 months-conclusion. Over the equal length, their debt is down $7 billion. in addition to debt discount year thus far, they have now used $3 billion for acquisitions and over $four billion for shareholder returns through dividends. Their strong money technology and disciplined fiscal administration offers the gas to invest in their company and pay a pretty dividend.

    Turning to the segments. Cloud and Cognitive application salary grew 2%. they now have a powerful routine income base in utility. Renewal fees for subscription and aid were up once more this quarter, contributing to the raise in their software deferred profits balance over the last year.

    through company enviornment, Cloud and statistics structures salary changed into up 9%, while Cognitive applications declined 1%, and Transaction Processing systems was down 9%. They recently shared plans to provide new software revenue categories starting within the fourth quarter. they are able to combine their two software increase vectors, Cloud and facts platforms and Cognitive purposes, and inside that, supply superior transparency into efficiency and traits by means of business area. looking throughout these growth vectors, pink Hat, safety, and automation fueled income boom this quarter.

    crimson Hat earnings changed into up 17% on a traditionally normalized groundwork and 23% all-in. Going forward, they are able to focal point on this all-in boom given these views will converge over the next yr because the have an impact on of the deferred income impairment dissipates. red Hat salary increase become driven by double-digit increase in each infrastructure and utility building and rising know-how. And they had more than forty% growth in OpenShift ordinary salary.

    boom in automation turned into led with the aid of key options like Cloud Pak for Integration, and Cloud Pak for business Automation, in addition to a strong delivery to their fresh Instana and Turbonomic acquisition. Their facts and AI salary become down modestly. They had power in Cloud Pak for facts, weather, and Maximo and declines in on-premise records ops portfolio and supply chain as it wrapped on a strong third quarter ultimate 12 months. safety continues to be a key strategic focal point enviornment as we're helping clients undertake zero have confidence structure with Cloud Pak for security and export services.

    growth in security revenue persisted this quarter, led through hazard management utility and services as customers reply to the evolving cybersecurity atmosphere. within the spirit of transparency, i'll deliver a few further metrics into their performance. Their annual routine revenue, or ARR, across these utility increase vectors grew 7%. here's a very good indication of the growth in their hybrid cloud and AI client adoption.

    And they now have over $eight billion in software cloud revenue over the final yr, which is up 28%. Turning to their software price vector, transaction processing platforms. They deliver flexibility to their customers and how they purchase this mission-vital software. Over the remaining 18 months, we've got seen a choice for opex over capex.

    This continues to power perpetual licenses in choose of greater consumption-like mannequin. however importantly, they once again had potent renewal charges in their transaction processing platform application. here is an excellent indication that customers see long-time period value in these offerings. looking at profit for the software segment, they elevated pre-tax margin sequentially, whereas they continue to put money into new innovation and their ecosystem.

    moving to global company capabilities. income growth accelerated to eleven%. Even with the mighty income efficiency, their ebook-to-bill ratio was more desirable than one. Their GBS price proposition is aligned to their shoppers' priorities.

    We're helping their purchasers catch new growth opportunities and boost operational flexibility and productiveness with hybrid cloud and AI. They leverage their incumbency, IBM technology, and strategic partnerships to modernize their applications and digitally radically change their companies at scale. GBS profits increase is led by using their cloud providing. GBS cloud earnings now represents greater than $7 billion of revenue over the remaining yr and is up 27%.

    This performance displays the continued investments we're making in their pink Hat, Microsoft, and AWS practices. As Arvind said, they delivered over one hundred eighty crimson Hat customer engagements this quarter. This contributes to total red Hat-linked signings of close to $3.5 billion considering the fact that the acquisition. within their 11% income increase, consulting was up 16%.

    there is strong demand here. We're leveraging their advantage and ecosystem partners to transform their purchasers' enterprise processes and modernize functions based on OpenShift. world processing functions revenue become up 19%. Their choices in finance, procurement, and skill and transformation all grew at double-digit rates.

    more and more, we're connecting consulting and BPO to radically change customer workflows using hybrid cloud and AI. lastly, in utility administration, salary growth accelerated to 5%, off a prior year that was impacted via the pandemic. boom this quarter become pushed via administration of purposes in a multi-cloud ambiance. i may shift to GBS earnings profile, where their robust income performance drove gross and pre-tax income dollar increase.

    Our gross and pre-tax margins superior sequentially but were down 12 months to year. With the market chance they see, we're making aware choices to make investments forward of profits. they are investing in strategic partnerships, new choices and practices, and integrating and scaling out their acquisition. As i discussed past, we're investing in potential for GBS.

    in the ultimate a couple of months, they have accelerated their go-to-market substances and scaled their practices built around their ecosystem companions and purple Hat. With a aggressive labor market, here's placing some force on their labor costs, including better acquisition and retention prices, which is not yet mirrored in their existing pricing. They expect to catch this price in future engagements, but it will take time to appear in their margin profile. So now turning to the methods section.

    earnings efficiency was down 12% pushed by means of product cycles in IBM Z and vigor, mitigated with the aid of increase in Storage. In IBM Z, revenue declined 33% in the ninth quarter of z15 availability. while z15 program thus far continues to exceed the mighty z14 cycle, the magnitude of that overachievement has come down a couple of aspects this quarter. IBM Z is a long-lasting platform given market wants for scalability, reliability, security, and more recently, cloud-native development.

    These characteristics, together with their more moderen flexible consumption offerings, extra reveal the cost of IBM Z platform within their hybrid cloud and AI method. Their salary become down. Late within the quarter, they all started the rollout of their subsequent-generation Power10 beginning with high-conclusion device. As all the time, new vigor know-how is brought over time, and the mid-range and low-conclusion Power10 programs will be purchasable throughout 2022.

    Storage delivered eleven% revenue growth driven via demand from hyperscalers for their tape products and growth in entry-stage, all-flash storage following their product refresh prior this 12 months. taking a look at profit during this phase. earnings margin turned into down, reflecting where they are in the IBM Z and Power10 product cycles. So now let me flip to global expertise capabilities.

    salary become down 5%, which is a 1-factor deceleration from last quarter. The yr-to-year trajectory of income generated from the backlog has been improving over the ultimate few quarters. in the first half of the 12 months, they additionally had modest improvements in client-based company volumes and venture exercise, which contributes to in-length revenue. youngsters, this quarter, customers paused on new assignment undertaking because the separation turned into imminent, ensuing in the salary deceleration.

    on the time they determined to separate their managed infrastructure services business, they undertook a series of actions to Strengthen the margin, profit, and money generation profile of the enterprise, together with a considerable cost in the fourth quarter of 2020. The effects of those actions can be seen within the margin growth over the remaining a number of quarters. And this quarter, they again accelerated gross margin, up 120 foundation features. Kyndryl will take this enhanced income profile into the separation.

    i'll wrap up with a view of their development yr thus far after which talk about one of the fourth-quarter dynamics. As they enter 2021, they laid out their expectations for the 12 months for their two most critical measures: earnings and free money stream. They anticipated to grow salary for IBM at actual fees with underlying consistent-forex performance better in the 2nd half than the primary. They anticipated to develop revenue for IBM, excluding Kyndryl, at steady foreign money.

    And they anticipated to generate $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free money circulate. That, of path, excludes the money affects of the Kyndryl transaction charges and the structural moves i would mentioned previous. Now we're three quarters into the yr, and they just achieved the ultimate full quarter of IBM on a pre-separation basis. it be a fine time to take a snapshot in opposition t those ambitions.

    through the first three quarters, their profits at specific quotes is up 2%. Their revenue growth trajectory at regular forex has been improving all the way through the yr. And aside from Kyndryl, their third-quarter profits was up 2% year to year, and their adjusted free money stream over the last one year is $eleven.1 billion. since the beginning of the year, they now have streamlined their go-to-market.

    we've improved investments and closed 10 acquisitions. These moves and investments will help pressure profits growth, nevertheless it takes time to wholly recognise the benefit. overall, their outcomes over the primary three quarters of 2021 replicate progress they have been making toward their midterm model. all the way through the fourth quarter, they are able to complete the separation of Kyndryl, which is on the right track for November three.

    The fourth quarter, hence, is a major milestone as they transition to the future IBM. Now let me deliver some colour on three areas for the fourth quarter: first, the salary trajectory of the brand new segments; 2nd, i may comment on their tax price; and third, the influence of the separation of Kyndryl to IBM's consolidated consequences for November and December on an working foundation. i may start with the earnings trajectory of their segments as they document them within the fourth quarter. As all the time, i may discuss it on a constant-currency groundwork.

    but i'll remind you, the U.S. dollar continues to deliver a boost to and could be a 1- to 2-element headwind to boom in keeping with present spot fees. To deliver a more robust view of developments, i may focus on the increase prices earlier than the revenue from incremental income to Kyndryl. They see continued momentum in their increase vectors in utility and Consulting.

    We predict their software profits boom rate to enrich versus the third quarter. And in IBM Consulting, they once more predict double-digit salary boom. In infrastructure, given product cycle dynamics, they predict fairly constant efficiency with the third quarter, which changed into a high single-digit decline. 2nd, tax.

    i discussed the timing of discrete tax advantages took place sooner than they previously predicted as they prepared for the Kyndryl separation. They nonetheless predict their full-year tax expense to be in the low teenagers latitude, in accordance with what they indicated lower back in January. that's their all-in rate, together with discrete tax items, and applies a fourth-quarter tax rate within the excessive teenagers. after which finally, IBM's fourth-quarter consolidated consequences will mirror the Kyndryl separation.

    i'll body the profits and salary per share implications in response to the ultimate couple of years. Kyndryl traditionally represented simply below $5 billion of profits in the fourth quarter, with about $3.5 billion of that in November and December. at the same time, they estimate they are going to get about $350 million from incremental revenue in those two months from the brand new industrial relationship. The web impact to IBM consolidated consequences is a reduction of about $3 billion of profits for November and December as a result of the separation.

    And for these two months, they estimate an have an impact on of $0.20 to $0.25 of profits per share together with the brand new commercial relationship. on the time of separation, Kyndryl might be offered in discontinued operation, with the stability of IBM in continuing operation. they can deliver a old restatement of carrying on with operations earlier than the end of the 12 months. we're on the brink of the longer term IBM.

    Video: IBM misses Q3 revenue estimates (Yahoo! Finance)

    We predict to exit the fourth quarter capable to convey their mid-time period model, a mid-single-digit profits boom, and cumulative free cash stream of $35 billion in 2022 to 2024. So with that, they will be happy to take your questions. i could turn it again to Patricia.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    thank you, Jim. earlier than they start the study guide mp;A, i would like to point out a few gadgets. First, a couple of references had been made these days to IBM's new segment constitution, which could be advantageous automatically prior to the Kyndryl separation. They supplied information on the brand new section scope and naming in a piece of writing posted to their investor site firstly of this month.

    2d, supplemental suggestions is provided at the end of the presentation, [Inaudible] contains the agenda of the availability of recast financial information for IBM publish separation. and eventually, as at all times, I ask you to chorus from multi-part questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

    Questions & answers:


    thank you. at present, they can begin the question-and-answer session of the convention. [Operator instructions] Their first query comes from Wamsi Mohan with bank of america. Sir, your line is open.

    Wamsi Mohan -- bank of america Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    yes, thanks. Arvind, there seems to be loads of concerns around the precise separation when it comes to abilities disruptions. You cited on this name that you simply noticed some hesitation or pause in spending. Do you feel -- given the adjustments that you've got put in vicinity also with sales comp, do you consider comfortable in regards to the trajectory of the company when you get previous this threshold of close-term disruption that you highlighted? And if I may, Jim, you stated about $2.5 billion one-time bump from Kyndryl in 2022.

    are you able to maybe calibrate that quantity for 2021 as neatly? that might be useful. thank you.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    hey, Wamsi, thanks for the question. seem, i might like to be very clear. I suppose that any -- and that i would no longer use the note disruption, Wamsi. i would use the word that there may be a moderate pause, which is the words that I used within the -- my prepared remarks.

    I think there may be a mild pause, and it will be the end of third quarter, might be the beginning of fourth quarter. And they see that fall frequently in hardware and in Kyndryl itself. incidentally, simply to add some colour, why do you see that? there has been lots of hardware that really does flow via Kyndryl. and many americans, lots of their customers believe of that as being an alternate method that they have got procured infrastructure during the past.

    So, it be now not a surprise given the measurement of the connection with all of those consumers that they see a pause in some of them. by the way, I consider that it's the finished nature of it. once I analyze their pipeline, I look at their revenue compensation, I analyze their government compensation, i am fully assured that this should be well in the back of us through the starting of '22, which means through January, smartly in the back of us. And as they also get into a new product cycle on probably the most hardware in the first half of '22, I think that'll put it completely in the back of us.

    And so, my view is that they dangle firm to their '22 and forward projections. And this has basically bought no lengthy-term or systemic concerns that I see, each within the numbers, within the pipelines, and in the genuine habits of shoppers and their individuals.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief fiscal Officer

    Thanks, Wamsi. To your 2nd query, remember lower back at -- on October four, at their Investor Day, they talked about the potent strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl going forward, of which I feel, at the moment, they shared about $2.5 billion of annualized company predominantly structured around their excessive-price, mission-important recurring salary of utility and also some in their infrastructure section around hardware purchases and around their infrastructure aid. That changed into a full-yr annualized view. in case you analyze fourth quarter, we'll have two months' value of that in 2021.

    And they estimate that it's about $350 million to $four hundred million standard. So if you go again to what I noted on October 4, the 2022 compared to 2021, 365 days versus two months is, deliver or take, about a bit bit over $2 billion. And that interprets into the three elements of incremental increase one time above their mid-single-digit mannequin in midterm.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    Thanks, Wamsi. Let's go to the next question.


    Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein. Your line is open.

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    yes. thanks. and that i feel, Arvind, you touched on this in the first question, but most likely let me ask it a little extra directly. So, this quarter, IBM grew at 1.9% for RemainCo versus the comparison of consistent currency at minus three.5%.

    The comparisons get about 2 or 3 points more difficult searching into subsequent 12 months, and you have to accelerate your growth cost to get to mid-single-digit increase through 2 or three facets. So effectively, adjusting for compares, the growth fee has to enhance about 5 percent points relative to what you did this quarter to hit that mid-single-digit target. past a product cycle in mainframe and UNIX, given you pointed out sort of taking time for investments to repay, what goes to reputedly pretty exchange the growth profile adjusting for comps by potentially 4, 5, or 6 elements over the next few quarters? and the way lengthy do you continue to are expecting to invest, i.e., have force on operating margins, in particular in application and GBS going forward? thank you.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    ok. Thanks, Toni. i'll take the primary a part of that, after which i may analyze Jim for the second part of the question. So, Toni, there may be three materials of it.

    First, let me well known, sure, their increase quotes need to increase, so absolute confidence about it. They aren't asserting we're completed. The three elements that allows you to make contributions to the boom fee -- and i think lots of what you had been pointing to become toward the application boom cost. i may say it comes from three issues.

    One, we're seeing advancements in their organic, that means the software they already have. They proceed to see that. They predict that so that it will enrich the utility boom fees through a few facets. I won't actually say the upper band because I do not predict that the three features i mentioned, all of them, will all return at their higher band.

    So, to illustrate, 1 or 2 points from the biological increase rate. Two, they can continue to make acquisitions. So now not simplest do those they have made preserve contributing because they're starting to be smartly into double-digit growth charges or the brand new ones they make will additionally make contributions to that. feel of that to be in the equal range.

    The third one, as we're making loads of alterations in their earnings compensation, in addition to within the make-up of their sales group, they speak concerning the garages. They discuss client success managers leading to extra experiential and more technical promoting. They accept as true with that'll drive more desirable deployment and therefore, faster purchases in that phase. And so, all of these together will make contributions towards a a great deal-better growth rate within the application phase as much as the mid-single digit as I think you might be pointing out in a few of your math.

    i'm no longer going to debate is it 3%, four%, or 5%. chuffed to do that when they now have a little greater time. and that i'll circulate it over to Jim for the 2nd a part of the question.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief monetary Officer

    To that point, I can't withstand however go into the numbers. So, let's simply -- Toni, incredible question. thanks very a whole lot. Let's focus on this quarter.

    once again, IBM ex-Kyndryl delivered about 2% boom. incidentally, it is an accelerating fashion as they referred to within the organized remarks from about flat throughout the first half to now growing 2%. yes, off an easier examine, they acknowledge that. but let's take a look on the earnings contribution analysis of what contributed to that 2 aspects, and now i could tie it returned to what they mentioned on October four as their mid-single-digit growth fee mannequin.

    We spoke of throughout their three segments, first, they have an enhancing boom profile as they shift to higher cost, bigger increase markets over 70% of their business in software and in Consulting, which, incidentally, additionally contains a higher cost recurring earnings stream, that these two segments will contribute all 5 features of IBM's growth, by the way, with enhancing working margins, which i may get into on the conclusion. The infrastructure segment, which is excessive-value, mission-vital protecting their mainframe company and infrastructure aid enterprise, changed into projected to be flat over time as it follows innovation cycle. So, as they bring out innovation subsequent year, they firmly trust and assured that they will grow there. but over a 3-12 months length, it's about flat but a significant cash generator.

    So, you obtained two growth vectors, one cost vector, two offering increase, one supplying cash technology. Now let's examine how the third quarter performed out. towards that 70-plus % of their two increase vectors that centered a 5-element contribution, they delivered four.5 aspects of income boom to IBM. They fell about 0.5 element short, and that is the reason within the software enviornment because they overachieved in GBS.

    we now have a robust book of business in GBS, now IBM Consulting, and they see that continuing to play out. They obtained work to do on software, however we're making underlying enterprise performance because, as you all be aware of, you see the facts. Their deferred income tailwind dissipates over time. And they misplaced about 1 factor of growth in software simply because of the deferred profits tailwind, which skill that the underlying business of their seasoned forma IBM application continues to improve.

    Why can they believe assured relocating ahead? just adding to probably the most features of Arvind, number 1, they have been 5 quarters in a row now with strong renewal rates. 80% of their software company is ordinary income, high-cost recurring earnings. and you see that in their deferred income and deferred income stability up $800 million year over 12 months. quantity two, they see fine acceleration in ARR.

    And incidentally, NRR north of a hundred% once more for the third consecutive quarter. And we're starting to see satisfactory acceleration in Cloud Paks. And most significantly, as they mentioned three quarters in the past, they are now beginning to enter the early materials of their ELA cycle. on the way to proceed into 2022 and the primary half of 2023.

    So, they consider pretty assured about the two increase vectors. where they missed is, based on being on the returned conclusion of a very a hit mainframe cycle, the infrastructure section took 2.5 facets of boom faraway from IBM ex-Kyndryl. So plus 4.5 features against the goal of 5%, they lost 2.5 points in infrastructure. And for you to moderate out over time as they convey new innovation.

    and then ultimately, simply wrapping up, for your operating margin comment, they referred to entering this 12 months, two most essential measures, income boom, free cash flow generation. We're achieving on both of these. They referred to that free cash stream era turned into going to be essential as a result of they obligatory to gasoline investment in innovation and in IBM Consulting as a result of they noticed effective demand. We're enjoying that out consciously.

    we are going to see that enrich as they get into 2022, but we're still driving that money. and that i'll wrap up, year thus far through third quarter, transforming into earnings, becoming revenue ex-Kyndryl at regular currency. We're transforming into gross and pre-tax greenbacks. We're transforming into pre-tax margin, and we're growing to be trailing 12 months free money circulation.

    So it's the mannequin that they put in place, and they think pretty assured as they enter 2022.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    thanks, Toni. Victor, might they please take the subsequent query?


    Our next query comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    yes, thanks. Arvind, you referenced the positives in Kyndryl and hardware within the quarter, but software efficiency became also mild of expectations. So, can you talk about what drove the shortfall in Cloud and Cognitive application and where you see alternatives for enhanced execution inside that software enterprise?

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    sure. Thanks, Katy. yes, certainly, as -- in fact, even Jim recounted that they fell probably 0.5 point in need of their personal expectations, and they may have finished improved. here is the place I see it doing improved.

    First, the one that performed precisely based on what they wanted become purple Hat. pink Hat gave us 17%, which is relatively a great deal what they wanted and anticipated. If I now look at their Transaction Processing Platform, it turned into a bit bit beneath what they would like because they now have been asserting that, in a long-time period model, that may still be greater mid-single-digit decliner. but this quarter, it become a excessive single-digit decliner.

    We consider that as they get past as a result of that's coupled, i wouldn't name it similar, however is coupled to probably the most infrastructure cycles, I expect that to come lower back beginning in early '22 or perhaps late in '21. Then on their category that's these days called AI applications, they have been minus 1%. There, i'd expect us to get lower back to mid-single-digit increase. Now you sort of say, if I put it all together, can they are expecting to peer a tiny bit -- I name it a tiny bit of pausing from people as a result of every thing occurring? yes.

    Two, we're turning their incentive fashions. I spoke on it on the prior query very briefly. Their incentive models for their earnings groups are going to be very closely tuned towards application going forward in '22. That, I consider, will result in more suitable -- an awful lot better performance since the handiest means that they'll get anywhere close the goal incentives is to make their utility quantity.

    it is likely for the primary time that that is been true in a long, long term at IBM. So, Katy, this is variety of my view on what came about there and the way they will Strengthen going forward.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    Thanks, Katy. Let's go to the next query, please. 


    Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    whats up, thanks. or not it's good to talk to you all. i needed to ask on the GBS side. so that did accelerate double-digit revenue increase.

    feels like fourth quarter, you are expecting that, too, however did come at a much better charge. So, i'm simply curious on the gross margin percentage front. So, i'm curious, one of the confidence so that you can reprice to offset the better can charge of delivery, is there chance that these prices may persist right here given all the demand aspect that you simply're seeing? thank you.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief monetary Officer

    Yeah. Tien-Tsin, this is Jim. i could take that as they circulate ahead. As I stated past and Arvind commented within the organized remarks, they do see a really effective demand atmosphere out there.

    As they had been going through fourth quarter, they known as a really conscious approach. GBS, now IBM Consulting, once again, performs a very fundamental position to their hybrid cloud platform-centric company model. Why? since it drives scale and adoption to their platform, and it additionally pulls IBM know-how whereas taking knowledge of the ecosystem and partnership and talent and means. So, they began aggressively adding skill, ability, talents, ecosystem partnerships, and scaling acquisitions.

    I believe they just introduced nowadays their eighth GBS acquisition in the closing 12 months normal. So, it became a aware strategy. And they believe that that flywheel impact of GBS that turns into the multiplier of using their platform, pulling their application, and riding a very strong financial equation for their ecosystem companions is primary in their long-time period approach. Now with that spoke of, they saw margins down 310 groundwork points.

    We noticed pre-tax margins down one hundred ten foundation features. within that, even though, they grew gross earnings bucks, and they grew pre-tax greenbacks. We're about generating growth in accurate line and round generating cash contribution. And GBS delivered that nowadays.

    i'd additionally mention that GBS accelerated their margins quarter to quarter extremely. Pretax margins have been up 5 features quarter to quarter, and they've been accelerating their gross margins sequentially every single quarter this 12 months. So, they delivered over 13 points of pre-tax margin within the third quarter; and their model, as they observed on October four, became low teenagers. So, they think fairly comfy.

    We see a great ebook of company, and they continue to peer, in fourth quarter, IBM Consulting providing double-digit earnings boom and margin dollar and profit greenback and cash dollar contribution whereas pulling their utility and hybrid cloud platform.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor family members

    Thanks, Tien-Tsin. Let's go to the subsequent query, please.


    Our subsequent question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Your line is open.

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    thank you very a lot. My query, considering the fact that loads of them were answered, there's just one of them, and that's the have an impact on of larger labor expenses. No rely where you seem to be, labor charges are going bigger. and i do see that to your organized slides that you just did deliver that your signings were up 3%.

    So, may still they think about, as time rolls forward, you are going to implement more labor costs that expand and go bigger? Or are they actually cloth adequate so they should be modeling some alterations into your cash flows? Or how should still they form of feel about that as you work throughout the company since it's a pretty dynamic and fluid circumstance with labor prices? thank you.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    So, Jim, exquisite question. And by the way, i might let you know that I don't believe that this year is unique. perhaps there may be a touch extra considerations going on, however I don't consider it's unique. I remember 2001 definitely smartly.

    I remember 2007 simply earlier than the financial disaster. here is a continual movie in the know-how trade. Now you mentioned the 3% signings growth. i would not seem to be at the 3%.

    i'd examine their e-book-to-bill ratio, which is 1.1. And so, publication-to-invoice offers a much better sign of what the demand is for their ahead-searching income and demand in their IBM Consulting enterprise. Now, appear, labor needs to be managed. they now have a worldwide labor model.

    We put americans everywhere. And as Jim just mentioned in answers to the prior question that, yes, should you do have inflation on your labor can charge, there's a component of it it really is going to fee through for that aspect of the business. In the entire rest of the enterprise, basically, i am no longer so concerned about labor can charge. i am concerned about getting the appropriate talent possibly, but it's all the time a be troubled that I even have, and that i've been paranoid about that for 30 years.

    it truly is now not pleasing. and that i think it's comparable to many of your businesses, Jim, like no longer just yours but your whole colleagues here on this name. The correct talent is far more critical, and their labor cost is important. in the end of the day, it be possibly 15%, 20% of the whole can charge and cost it's type of essential towards the different corporations since you can control the rest.

    So, net answer to you is, no, it be no longer whatever that must be modeled in. I don't consider so. however they at all times need to be concerned about it when it comes to how will they cost, how do they get the labor swimming pools, the place can they put the labor swimming pools, and all of those elements.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor family members

    fantastic. thank you, Jim. Let's go to the next query, please.


    Our next query comes from Keith Bachman, bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    hello. Many thanks for taking the question. i wished to ask first on Cloud Paks that you just seem to be suggesting that here is going to be a key or one of the crucial many enablers to pressure boom. and that i was hoping you may explain a little bit why Cloud Paks because it sounds very akin to bundling, which IBM and a lot of organizations have been doing for years.

    So, wish to are attempting to take into account a bit bit why Cloud Pak is distinctive from the historic bundling that IBM has been doing. and then 2nd, if I could just ask, Jim, a question I've asked before is on application preservation. a very good quarter on easy compares and that i simply desired to get your recommendations on the durability of the utility preservation, no longer even if it's vital. however is it, in fact, a increase class as they look out within GBS over the subsequent two years, three years? Many thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    good enough. So, Keith, i may take the primary part of that question on Cloud Paks. So, Cloud Paks are not just bundled. they're no longer just containerizing utility.

    i may let you know correct away, if all you do is bundled software, you will in fact get a value deflation. If all you do is containerized software, there might be no plus or minus. it be just a special means of providing it. So i could take one of the vital Cloud Paks and maybe use it as a short illustration.

    If I take their Cloud Pak for records, if I now turn round and inform you that no matter if they take a few of their integration software or whether they take a database software like Db2, and that's all you deliver via that, you're right, it really is neither plus nor minus. I consider it'll live where it's. besides the fact that children, it be not simply inserting those in as options. a lot of the Cloud Pak for facts is really new innovation.

    It includes methods round data fabric. It includes methods round how do you federate information both from public clouds and from different repositories which are doubtless now not IBMs inside the client's on-premise environment. It includes the records catalog. It consists of these easy methods to be in a position to do some competition with out even moving the statistics.

    That new content brought to one of the most present content material, so they take advantage of their incumbency, but they get carry as a result of there's greater utilization standard for these applied sciences than there became before, is why we're so excited about Cloud Paks and the place it gives us both. sure, some of it is only going to be a circulation, but lots of it's in fact multiplied usage. And confidently, that form of made the illustration clear on how they are using innovation into the portfolio with that one example. So Jim, i may supply it to you to address the -- I do not know whether to carry preservation in ARR or NRR.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief monetary Officer

    I suppose, Keith -- and i'm decoding your question given you applied it to GBS, and they now have had this dialogue many quarters accurately so, and also you're talking about utility management services, AMS. If i am now not answering the right query, please get again to Patricia, and they are able to movement forward from there. however AMS, as they have mentioned for a handful of quarters, they got returned to growth, up 5%, accelerated that boom, albeit, as they noted in the prepared remarks, off a tons less difficult compare right through the top of the pandemic closing year in third quarter. but it was up this quarter as they had increase in offerings, which modernize the client's purposes and as they flow them to a hybrid cloud.

    We spoke of their utility administration having an enormous incumbency cost in a hybrid cloud platform-centric model. Why? as a result of what we've got seen and discovered over the remaining two-plus years after the acquisition of crimson Hat is that, one, now they have developed up a $3.5 billion publication of company around their red Hat practice in GBS from a lifeless start all the way through the acquisition. And they constructed that up. Of that $3.5 billion, over three-quarters of that book of business is in AMS bills.

    second, AMS -- excuse me, GBS driving that flywheel effect I pointed out earlier is truly -- delivers over one-third of their cloud profits -- Cloud Pak salary growth each quarter, and inside that, 80% are AMS accounts. So, there is a causality and a correlation here between their mighty incumbency base, us having industry enterprise technique competencies and the technical abilities to be the customer's depended on associate. To flow them along their experience to cloud, AMS is a very fundamental part. So, they noticed decent boom.

    And by the way, their penetration of AMS cloud undertaking, remember, they pointed out during the past this predominantly being an on-prem business application awareness situation. They proceed to make progress. We're -- about near 40% of their AMS company is now cloud, and we're capitalizing on crimson Hat. We're catalyzing on utility modernization.

    And we're capitalizing on very strong ecosystem partnerships with SAP S/4HANA, to identify one, as they movement ahead.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor relations

    Very first rate. thanks, Keith. Victor, let's take one remaining query.


    definitely, their ultimate question comes from David Grossman with Stifel. Your line is open.

    David Grossman -- Stifel fiscal Corp. -- Analyst

    thanks, and thanks for squeezing me in right here. simply two basically brief ones. First, how a whole lot, if any, of the salary with Kyndryl is recreation-primarily based, which can be stylish on their own execution? after which secondly, Jim, you outlined the ELA cycle commencing, I believe, early 2022. most likely you could share with us just how an awful lot of a headwind it be been and which segments it's impacted most.


    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief economic Officer

    David, thanks very a whole lot for the question. I feel i could take both, and then Arvind can wrap it up here average. First, around Kyndryl. So, if you go lower back to October four, at the Investor Day, which they had been fairly transparent, and they mentioned we'll proceed that transparency into 2022 around the exterior income with the strong strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl, they observed about, on a full-yr basis, $2.5 billion, supply or take.

    And in 2022, if you happen to acquired twelve months versus two months in 2021, it might be about $2 billion of incremental or about 3 aspects. within that, David, the majority of it's in utility. And a majority of it is annuitized-based excessive-price, mission-important-based mostly habitual revenue. So, if you are brooding about do they have any deflationary influences around that $2-plus billion on the software aspect, which carries the majority of it, no.

    The 2d component is they have about -- annualized about $0.5 billion relating to their infrastructure support and hardware. On the infrastructure support, or not it's once more an annuitized-based mostly company usual. And concerning hardware, in their strategic relationship, as they set Kyndryl up, now they have given them a stunning aggressive and element of aged inventory refresh program, so they now have very little hardware purchases over doubtless the subsequent 18 months to two years given they simply went via a huge asset refresh. So long answer to your question, but I do not feel they now have a lot of impact relocating forward against that.

    2d, across the ELA cycle, you know this quite smartly. it's typically a three-plus 12 months. The dynamics of client buying behaviors alternate over time, but they feel very assured. The decent information is here is they have loads of headroom.

    We're simply beginning the early a part of that in fourth quarter. to be able to predominantly play out in 2022 after which will additionally extend early into 2023 as they flow forward. And if you study their transactional-linked endeavor, they have been making strong efficiency growth in their annuitized-based mostly business with the renewal prices, and their on-prem transactional enterprise has struggled, specifically all the way through the pandemic. this will bolster that as they move ahead.

    And most importantly, they think confident within the investments in innovation and what we're bringing to market with their modernized and containerized Cloud Pak offerings optimized on suitable of their hybrid cloud red Hat platform that we're good. So, with that, let me turn it over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    Thanks, Jim. look, first, i'd want to thank all of you on your questions. i believed they have been actually entering into the details; and optimistically, their solutions helped you be mindful their business lots stronger. Let me just make a couple of comments to wrap it up.

    i am hoping you took away is that they proceed to make this development this quarter within the key areas. each myself and Jim highlighted them in their key areas of increase and in their price vectors as they go ahead, certainly searching into '23. but they will additionally renowned that they at all times have greater to do. Importantly, they are on the threshold of the IBM of the future, and they predict to exit the yr able that promises on their mid-time period model starting in 2022.

    it is the sustainable mid-single-digit earnings growth and the increasing free cash stream that fuels all of the investments. So, with that, I seem to be forward to talking to all of you again.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor relations

    Arvind, thanks. Victor, let me turn it back to you to close out the name.


    [Operator signoff]

    duration: sixty seven minutes

    call contributors:

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor family members

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief government Officer

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief economic Officer

    Wamsi Mohan -- bank of america Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    David Grossman -- Stifel fiscal Corp. -- Analyst

    greater IBM evaluation

    All revenue name transcripts

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