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IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 income call Transcript | 00M-656 test Cram and Test Prep

a close up of a logo: IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript © offered with the aid of The Motley idiot IBM (IBM) Q3 2021 earnings call Transcript


Q3 2021 income name

Oct 20, 2021, 5:00 p.m. ET

  • prepared Remarks
  • Questions and solutions
  • name individuals
  • prepared Remarks:


    Welcome, and thank you for standing by way of. at the moment, all members are in a pay attention-handiest mode. contemporary convention is being recorded. if you have any objections, you can also disconnect at the present.

    Now i will turn the assembly over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may additionally begin.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor family members

    thanks. here is Patricia Murphy, and i'd like to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2021 profits presentation. i'm right here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's chairman and chief govt officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's senior vice president and chief economic officer. [Inaudible] prepared remarks on the IBM investor website inside a couple of hours, and a replay may be accessible by using this time the next day.

    i could remind you the separation of Kyndryl is expected to be completed firstly of December. And as a result, their third-quarter efficiency reflects IBM, including the managed infrastructure features company and their pre-separation phase structure. comments made during this presentation may well be considered ahead-searching beneath the inner most Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements contain elements that might cause their specific consequences to vary materially.


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    this text is a transcript of this convention name produced for The Motley fool. while they attempt for their silly top-quality, there could be error, omissions, or inaccuracies during this transcript. as with any their articles, The Motley idiot does not expect any responsibility in your use of this content, and they strongly motivate you to do your own analysis, together with taking note of the call yourself and studying the business's SEC filings. Please see their phrases and conditions for additional details, including their necessary Capitalized Disclaimers of legal responsibility.

    The Motley idiot has no place in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley idiot has a disclosure policy.

    counsel about these elements is protected in the enterprise's SEC filings. The presentation additionally comprises non-GAAP measures to deliver additional information to traders. for example, they existing income and signings boom in constant forex. in addition, to provide a view per their go-ahead business, we'll center of attention on regular-forex growth, adjusting for the divested corporations for the impacted lines of total profits, cloud, and their geographic performance.

    We supplied reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures on the conclusion of the presentation, eight-k submitted to the SEC. With that, i'll turn the name over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    thank you, Patricia, and because of all of you for joining us nowadays to discuss their third-quarter performance. At their contemporary investor briefing, they laid out their hybrid cloud and AI approach and their approach to providing potent free money stream and sustainable mid-single-digit profits boom starting in 2022. For the remaining yr and a half, now they have been taking moves and investing to execute their approach. This quarter, they stated modest profits increase and delivered solid free cash stream, generated over $11 billion of adjusted free money movement over the last yr.

    We additionally made tangible development in their key boom areas of application and consulting. With that, i will be able to well known that in other areas of the enterprise, they fell wanting their expectation; methods during the end of the z15 cycle and global technology services lines pausing ahead of the public submitting of the kind 10 and separation of Kyndryl. they have made extra progress in the Kyndryl separation within the closing two weeks and announced the distribution date of November three, which is ahead of their fashioned time table. they now have carried out a great deal to prepare Kyndryl for this second.

    We took structural movements to enrich the income profile. The administration group is in location. worker transfers and the monstrous majority of customer contract improvements are complete. They are actually much more definite that isolating this company creates value via center of attention.

    That mentioned, the people of GTS have been a part of IBM for a long time. hence, it's with mixed feelings that we're reporting on this section for the last time. And just the previous day, you heard from Martin and his management team more suitable approach and price proposition. The separation is just one of the numerous movements we're taking to center of attention their company on hybrid cloud and AI and enrich their fiscal profile.

    To provide you with some color on IBM's performance excluding Kyndryl, they delivered 2% profits increase this quarter. That compares to 1% within the second quarter and minus 1% in the first quarter. These consequences reflect the powerful demand for expertise products and services that help their customers enhance their digital transformation. Their software salary increase was led with the aid of red Hat, safety, automation, and Cloud Paks throughout their utility.

    global company features, soon to be IBM Consulting, accelerated income boom to a double-digit cost. software and consulting are their two main drivers of boom, and this become definitely authentic this quarter. i'll now expand on the growth they made in the third quarter toward their future. As I even have described in the past, they now have a platform-centric method, making an attempt to fulfill shoppers wherever they are of their journey.

    The platform we've constructed is open, at ease, and versatile and continues to gain traction in the market. they have more than 3,500 shoppers the use of their hybrid cloud platform, not only fuels their pink Hat revenue performance however also offers a high-quality base for the multiplier impact throughout utility and capabilities. IBM Consulting is assisting to force this platform adoption and this quarter, had over 180 new pink Hat engagements. Their groups work alongside their customers to co-create enterprise items and options.

    thus far, they have completed more than 4,000 IBM storage engagements. in the last quarter, extra shoppers are leveraging their platform capabilities and their capabilities to liberate enterprise price. introduced DISH is the use of IBM software and capabilities to assist automate their cloud-native 5G network; Cloud Pak for community Automation, which is used with AI, automation, and orchestration capabilities used by using DISH to best-tune speed stages or insurance areas depending on the wants of selected valued clientele. constructing on their partnership spanning half a century, they announced credit Mutuel is developing an IBM technology and advantage hub in France.

    the brand new hub will help credit Mutuel leverage AI, records, cloud, and IBM Z. also announced a brand new agreement with CaixaBank, one of the largest banks in Europe, to enhance its digital capabilities with IBM Cloud for fiscal functions and the new IBM Cloud Multizone vicinity in Spain. CaixaBank will leverage IBM Consulting trade competencies to move to a hybrid cloud approach for modernization. This quarter, they persisted to leverage their ecosystem to pressure what they described at their investor briefing as a flywheel of growth.

    that is the more they develop, the more their partners develop and vice versa. We're partnering with select GSIs to convey joint options to market. This quarter, Atos announced the setup of the Atos Cloud middle of Excellence to aid fiscal services clients with their digital transformation event. also have endured momentum and revenue boom from their partnership with industry-leading ISVs and hyperscalers.

    [Inaudible], they are partnering with Adobe to help the British pharmacy chain, Boots, transform their e-commerce platform and carry new digital customer experiences. whereas they put money into partnerships, they also make investments organically and inorganically to deliver innovation. They made sixteen acquisitions because April 2020, including BoxBoat and Bluetab within the third quarter. These will toughen their hybrid cloud consulting skill.

    within the identical manner, they are organically constructing new improvements that count to their purchasers. i'll mention a couple of new introductions beginning with their improvements in software. in the quarter, crimson Hat added a brand new rearchitectured version of the red Hat Ansible automation platform. crimson Hat additionally launched a brand new version of its advanced cluster management of Kubernetes.

    These two items are actually greater tightly built-in, which helps drive hybrid cloud automation. moreover, the latest edition of crimson Hat OpenShift grew to become often purchasable. IBM Cloud Paks run anywhere that OpenShift runs. They use general features comparable to logging, metering, monitoring, and safety and are infused with improvements and capabilities from IBM research to convey lots extra value than containerized code.

    during this quarter, they launched Cloud Pak for protection, SaaS, in addition to new types of Cloud Pak for Integration, Cloud Pak for network Automation, and the Maximo utility suite. also recently introduced their Environmental Intelligence software suite. Product in keeping with their Cloud Pak for statistics and leveraging their climate capabilities is designed to support businesses measure, computer screen, and predict environmental effects however also to help simplify ESG reporting. As you know, they made a commitment to be net-zero greenhouse fuel emissions by way of 2030.

    we will leverage this solution to inform administration as they take action to attain this aim. Their systems business, they these days launched Power10. Power10 has unique hardware improvements, including a processor specifically optimized for records-intensive workloads such as SAP S/4HANA. right through the quarter, they also announced a Telum processor.

    This 7-nanometer microprocessor is engineered to aid consumers profit insights from their information at the speed of the workload. at the same time, we've got endured to peer quantum computing as a promising area of probability that allows you to play out within the long run. Their groups are hard at work to circulation this wonderful box ahead. traders will have an opportunity to study more about this within the next month.

    Let me quickly spotlight one ESG announcement they made lately. To aid offer protection to the rights and privateness of cloud purchasers, they have joined other principal corporations in the tech industry, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce, and SAP, to set up the trusted cloud ideas. This initiative is consistent with their lengthy-standing focus on have faith and transparency. earlier than I transition to Jim, let me reiterate three messages they conveyed all over their investor briefing.

    First, they are optimizing their portfolio to force mid-single-digit profits growth starting in 2022. 2nd, they are expanding their center of attention and agility to greater serve customers. Third, we're producing effective free money circulation that permits their investments while featuring beautiful shareholder returns. This quarter, they took one other step towards this future.

    while lots continues to be to be finished, they are assured they will achieve their midterm goals. Jim, over to you.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief fiscal Officer

    Thanks, Arvind. Over the last yr, they now have been very clear on the two most essential measures of success: revenue growth and free cash movement era. i may delivery with these key metrics. in the third quarter, their income of $17.6 billion become up as reported and down modestly at steady forex.

    with the exception of the content as a way to go to Kyndryl, IBM's salary grew 2% with an enhancing style over the last three quarters. Their money era changed into up for the quarter, 12 months thus far, and trailing three hundred and sixty five days. This excludes the cash prices associated with the separation of Kyndryl and the structural actions initiated on the end of final year. looking at their revenue from a section point of view, global enterprise features growth accelerated to 11%, and their utility revenue changed into up 2%.

    These corporations could be their boom drivers into the future and together signify over 70% of their publish-separation profits profile. techniques declined this quarter by using 12%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. throughout their segments, IBM's cloud revenue become up eleven% over last year, and it be up 17%, except the cloud salary going to Kyndryl. here is led through international company functions and Cloud and Cognitive utility, which can be up 27% and 28%, respectively, over that period.

    relocating on to the earnings dynamics. Pretax margin is up 10 groundwork points sequentially but down a hundred groundwork features yr to yr. As they saw the demand environment enhancing within the fourth quarter of final 12 months, they now have been increasing investments in talents, innovation, and their ecosystem, organically and through acquisition. within the third quarter, they continued to aggressively employ, bringing in technical skill in crimson Hat and particularly expert abilities in Consulting.

    We're scaling materials in their garages to supply a more experiential consulting and earnings approach. We're adding customer success managers to support consumers get the most cost out of their IBM solution, and we're increasing investments in R&D to bring innovations in their hybrid cloud platform, AI, and emerging technologies like Quantum. The structural actions they initiated on the end of closing yr are funding some of those investments. Roughly two-thirds of the reductions from these actions tackle stranded charges from the separation and create monetary flexibility to be reinvested for increase.

    The different one-third address the world technology capabilities income profile forward of the separation, and we're seeing improvement within the GTS gross margin. Their third-quarter operating tax expense came in about 5%, which is lessen than what they stated remaining quarter. This become because of discrete tax merits that occurred sooner than they up to now expected as they put together for the Kyndryl separation. it be critical to observe that their view of the whole-year operating tax rate has no longer changed when you consider that January.

    i may comment on their free money stream and steadiness sheet position. They generated $5 billion of adjusted free cash movement year so far and $eleven.1 billion over the final 12 months. both exclude money affects of about $1.eight billion for the structural movements initiated late closing year and transaction charges associated with the separation of Kyndryl. Their adjusted free cash movement over the last year is up about $300 million with boom in their underlying business efficiency mitigated by a cash tax headwind.

    Our cash balance at the end of September was $8.4 billion, up a little from June but down about $6 billion from yr-conclusion. Over the same duration, their debt is down $7 billion. apart from debt reduction yr up to now, we've used $3 billion for acquisitions and over $4 billion for shareholder returns through dividends. Their strong money era and disciplined financial administration gives the fuel to put money into their enterprise and pay a beautiful dividend.

    Turning to the segments. Cloud and Cognitive application revenue grew 2%. they now have a powerful habitual income base in software. Renewal quotes for subscription and assist have been up again this quarter, contributing to the raise in their application deferred revenue balance over the remaining 12 months.

    by company enviornment, Cloud and data systems income became up 9%, while Cognitive purposes declined 1%, and Transaction Processing structures changed into down 9%. They recently shared plans to deliver new utility salary classes starting in the fourth quarter. they will mix their two application growth vectors, Cloud and records platforms and Cognitive purposes, and within that, supply more suitable transparency into performance and traits via business enviornment. searching across these increase vectors, crimson Hat, safety, and automation fueled salary increase this quarter.

    crimson Hat profits turned into up 17% on a traditionally normalized groundwork and 23% all-in. Going ahead, they will focus on this all-in growth given these views will converge over the next 12 months because the influence of the deferred income impairment dissipates. red Hat income increase changed into driven by using double-digit increase in both infrastructure and utility development and emerging know-how. And they had more than forty% boom in OpenShift recurring profits.

    boom in automation become led by using key options like Cloud Pak for Integration, and Cloud Pak for enterprise Automation, in addition to a strong beginning to their exact Instana and Turbonomic acquisition. Their facts and AI income was down modestly. They had strength in Cloud Pak for facts, weather, and Maximo and declines in on-premise data ops portfolio and provide chain because it wrapped on a powerful third quarter last year. safety continues to be a key strategic focal point enviornment as we're helping clients undertake zero have faith structure with Cloud Pak for protection and export services.

    increase in safety income continued this quarter, led with the aid of threat administration utility and capabilities as purchasers reply to the evolving cybersecurity ambiance. within the spirit of transparency, i could supply a couple of extra metrics into their efficiency. Their annual routine revenue, or ARR, throughout these utility increase vectors grew 7%. here is an outstanding indication of the growth in their hybrid cloud and AI client adoption.

    And they have over $eight billion in software cloud revenue over the last yr, which is up 28%. Turning to their utility value vector, transaction processing structures. They provide flexibility to their shoppers and the way they buy this mission-crucial application. Over the ultimate 18 months, they now have considered a option for opex over capex.

    This continues to drive perpetual licenses in want of extra consumption-like model. however importantly, they again had mighty renewal fees in their transaction processing platform software. here's an exceptional indication that consumers see long-time period price in these choices. profit for the software phase, they multiplied pre-tax margin sequentially, while they continue to put money into new innovation and their ecosystem.

    moving to global enterprise capabilities. income boom accelerated to 11%. Even with the effective earnings performance, their ebook-to-invoice ratio was greater than one. Their GBS price proposition is aligned to their shoppers' priorities.

    We're assisting their consumers catch new increase alternatives and increase operational flexibility and productiveness with hybrid cloud and AI. They leverage their incumbency, IBM expertise, and strategic partnerships to modernize their applications and digitally transform their groups at scale. GBS earnings increase is led by way of their cloud providing. GBS cloud salary now represents greater than $7 billion of profits over the remaining yr and is up 27%.

    This performance reflects the continued investments we're making in their red Hat, Microsoft, and AWS practices. As Arvind mentioned, they added over one hundred eighty red Hat client engagements this quarter. This contributes to total purple Hat-connected signings of close to $3.5 billion because the acquisition. inside their eleven% salary increase, consulting become up 16%.

    there may be strong demand here. We're leveraging their competencies and ecosystem companions to transform their valued clientele' enterprise processes and modernize functions in keeping with OpenShift. world processing functions revenue changed into up 19%. Their offerings in finance, procurement, and talent and transformation all grew at double-digit rates.

    more and more, we're connecting consulting and BPO to seriously change client workflows the use of hybrid cloud and AI. finally, in utility management, profits increase accelerated to 5%, off a prior yr that become impacted by the pandemic. growth this quarter became pushed with the aid of management of functions in a multi-cloud environment. i could shift to GBS income profile, where their strong earnings performance drove gross and pre-tax income dollar growth.

    Our gross and pre-tax margins stronger sequentially but had been down yr to yr. With the market chance they see, we're making aware selections to make investments forward of income. we're investing in strategic partnerships, new offerings and practices, and integrating and scaling out their acquisition. As i mentioned prior, they are investing in knowledge for GBS.

    within the ultimate several months, we've elevated their go-to-market resources and scaled their practices developed round their ecosystem companions and crimson Hat. With a aggressive labor market, here's putting some pressure on their labor fees, together with larger acquisition and retention fees, which isn't yet mirrored in their current pricing. They predict to catch this value in future engagements, but it will take time to appear in their margin profile. So now turning to the methods section.

    earnings efficiency changed into down 12% driven with the aid of product cycles in IBM Z and energy, mitigated through increase in Storage. In IBM Z, profits declined 33% in the ninth quarter of z15 availability. while z15 software to this point continues to exceed the powerful z14 cycle, the magnitude of that overachievement has come down a couple of features this quarter. IBM Z is a lasting platform given market needs for scalability, reliability, protection, and more these days, cloud-native development.

    These qualities, at the side of their newer bendy consumption offerings, additional show the value of IBM Z platform inside their hybrid cloud and AI approach. Their salary become down. Late within the quarter, they all started the rollout of their next-technology Power10 beginning with excessive-conclusion system. As always, new power technology is introduced over time, and the mid-range and low-end Power10 programs will be purchasable all the way through 2022.

    Storage delivered eleven% revenue growth driven by using demand from hyperscalers for their tape items and boom in entry-stage, all-flash storage following their product refresh earlier this yr. taking a look at earnings during this phase. earnings margin turned into down, reflecting where we're within the IBM Z and Power10 product cycles. So now let me flip to global expertise services.

    profits turned into down 5%, which is a 1-aspect deceleration from closing quarter. The year-to-yr trajectory of salary generated from the backlog has been improving over the ultimate few quarters. in the first half of the 12 months, they also had modest improvements in customer-based company volumes and undertaking activity, which contributes to in-length salary. youngsters, this quarter, valued clientele paused on new challenge recreation because the separation became drawing close, ensuing within the profits deceleration.

    at the time they determined to separate their managed infrastructure services enterprise, they undertook a series of movements to enhance the margin, income, and money generation profile of the business, together with a substantial cost within the fourth quarter of 2020. The outcomes of those movements can also be considered in the margin improvement over the final a couple of quarters. And this quarter, they again improved gross margin, up 120 foundation features. Kyndryl will take this stronger earnings profile into the separation.

    i could wrap up with a view of their growth 12 months to date and then focus on one of the crucial fourth-quarter dynamics. As they enter 2021, they laid out their expectations for the year for their two most vital measures: income and free cash move. They anticipated to develop income for IBM at precise fees with underlying steady-foreign money performance improved in the 2d half than the first. They anticipated to grow earnings for IBM, apart from Kyndryl, at consistent foreign money.

    And they anticipated to generate $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash movement. That, of route, excludes the cash impacts of the Kyndryl transaction prices and the structural moves i would mentioned earlier. Now we're three quarters into the 12 months, and they simply achieved the ultimate full quarter of IBM on a pre-separation groundwork. it's an excellent time to take a image in opposition t those targets.

    through the first three quarters, their earnings at exact fees is up 2%. Their earnings boom trajectory at consistent foreign money has been enhancing all through the yr. And apart from Kyndryl, their third-quarter income turned into up 2% 12 months to 12 months, and their adjusted free cash circulate over the last 365 days is $11.1 billion. for the reason that the beginning of the year, they now have streamlined their go-to-market.

    we now have multiplied investments and closed 10 acquisitions. These moves and investments will aid force earnings growth, however takes time to entirely know the improvement. universal, their results over the primary three quarters of 2021 reflect development we've been making toward their midterm model. all over the fourth quarter, they can comprehensive the separation of Kyndryl, which is not off course for November 3.

    The fourth quarter, therefore, is a massive milestone as they transition to the long run IBM. Now let me deliver some colour on three areas for the fourth quarter: first, the earnings trajectory of the brand new segments; 2d, i'll comment on their tax price; and third, the have an impact on of the separation of Kyndryl to IBM's consolidated outcomes for November and December on an operating foundation. i'll delivery with the earnings trajectory of their segments as they record them within the fourth quarter. As all the time, i could talk about it on a continuing-foreign money groundwork.

    but i'll remind you, the U.S. dollar continues to beef up and would be a 1- to 2-aspect headwind to growth in keeping with existing spot costs. To deliver a far better view of developments, i could focus on the boom charges earlier than the revenue from incremental income to Kyndryl. They see continued momentum in their increase vectors in application and Consulting.

    We are expecting their application revenue growth expense to Strengthen versus the third quarter. And in IBM Consulting, they again are expecting double-digit revenue increase. In infrastructure, given product cycle dynamics, they are expecting fairly consistent performance with the third quarter, which become a excessive single-digit decline. 2nd, tax.

    i discussed the timing of discrete tax advantages happened sooner than they in the past expected as they organized for the Kyndryl separation. They nonetheless expect their full-year tax expense to be in the low teenagers latitude, in line with what they indicated returned in January. it is their all-in price, including discrete tax items, and applies a fourth-quarter tax price in the excessive teens. after which ultimately, IBM's fourth-quarter consolidated effects will reflect the Kyndryl separation.

    i could body the earnings and income per share implications in accordance with the ultimate couple of years. Kyndryl traditionally represented simply below $5 billion of earnings within the fourth quarter, with about $three.5 billion of that in November and December. at the equal time, they estimate they are going to get about $350 million from incremental sales in those two months from the brand new commercial relationship. The net influence to IBM consolidated results is a discount of about $3 billion of income for November and December because of the separation.

    And for these two months, they estimate an influence of $0.20 to $0.25 of income per share including the brand new business relationship. on the time of separation, Kyndryl could be presented in discontinued operation, with the steadiness of IBM in carrying on with operation. they are able to deliver a historical restatement of carrying on with operations earlier than the end of the year. we're on the threshold of the future IBM.

    Video: IBM misses Q3 profits estimates (Yahoo! Finance)

    We expect to exit the fourth quarter competent to bring their mid-term model, a mid-single-digit profits increase, and cumulative free money flow of $35 billion in 2022 to 2024. So with that, they are going to be satisfied to take your questions. i may turn it lower back to Patricia.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor family members

    thank you, Jim. earlier than they start the study guide mp;A, i might like to point out a few objects. First, a few references were made today to IBM's new segment structure, which may be advantageous automatically prior to the Kyndryl separation. They provided suggestions on the brand new segment scope and naming in a piece of writing posted to their investor web site at first of this month.

    second, supplemental assistance is provided at the end of the presentation, [Inaudible] comprises the time table of the availability of recast financial advice for IBM post separation. and at last, as all the time, I ask you to refrain from multi-half questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

    Questions & answers:


    thank you. at this time, they can start the query-and-reply session of the convention. [Operator instructions] Their first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with bank of the us. Sir, your line is open.

    Wamsi Mohan -- financial institution of the us Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    yes, thanks. Arvind, there looks to be a lot of considerations around the genuine separation when it comes to abilities disruptions. You noted on this name that you saw some hesitation or pause in spending. Do you consider -- given the adjustments that you've put in region also with earnings comp, do you feel comfy concerning the trajectory of the enterprise once you get past this threshold of near-term disruption that you just highlighted? And if I could, Jim, you referred to about $2.5 billion one-time bump from Kyndryl in 2022.

    are you able to perhaps calibrate that quantity for 2021 as well? that would be constructive. thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    hey, Wamsi, thanks for the query. seem to be, i'd want to be very clear. I believe that any -- and that i would now not use the notice disruption, Wamsi. i'd use the notice that there can be a mild pause, which is the phrases that I used within the -- my organized remarks.

    I suppose there may be a mild pause, and it'll be the end of third quarter, perhaps the starting of fourth quarter. And they see that fall broadly speaking in hardware and in Kyndryl itself. by the way, just to add some color, why do you see that? there was a lot of hardware that really does move through Kyndryl. and a lot of americans, lots of their customers consider of that as being an alternate method that they've procured infrastructure in the past.

    So, it's no longer a shock given the size of the relationship with all of those customers that they see a pause in a few of them. incidentally, I believe that it really is the comprehensive nature of it. once I study their pipeline, I examine their earnings compensation, I examine their government compensation, i am fully assured that this may be well in the back of us by the starting of '22, which means by way of January, neatly at the back of us. And as they also get into a new product cycle on some of the hardware within the first half of '22, I consider that'll put it completely behind us.

    And so, my view is that they hang firm to their '22 and ahead projections. And this has actually obtained no long-term or systemic concerns that I see, each within the numbers, in the pipelines, and within the real behavior of customers and their individuals.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief fiscal Officer

    Thanks, Wamsi. To your 2nd question, remember back at -- on October 4, at their Investor Day, they talked in regards to the amazing strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl going ahead, of which I suppose, at that time, they shared about $2.5 billion of annualized business predominantly structured around their excessive-cost, mission-crucial habitual income of utility and also some in their infrastructure segment around hardware purchases and around their infrastructure aid. That was a full-year annualized view. if you study fourth quarter, we're going to have two months' worth of that in 2021.

    And they estimate that it truly is about $350 million to $four hundred million general. So in case you go returned to what I pointed out on October 4, the 2022 compared to 2021, twelve months versus two months is, provide or take, about a bit bit over $2 billion. And that interprets into the three aspects of incremental growth one time above their mid-single-digit mannequin in midterm.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor family members

    Thanks, Wamsi. Let's go to the next question.


    Our subsequent question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein. Your line is open.

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    sure. thanks. and i think, Arvind, you touched on this within the first query, but possibly let me ask it a little greater at once. So, this quarter, IBM grew at 1.9% for RemainCo versus the assessment of steady forex at minus three.5%.

    The comparisons get about 2 or three facets more complex searching into next yr, and you've got to accelerate your boom cost to get to mid-single-digit growth by 2 or three elements. So without difficulty, adjusting for compares, the growth price has to Strengthen about 5 percent points relative to what you probably did this quarter to hit that mid-single-digit goal. beyond a product cycle in mainframe and UNIX, given you spoke of form of taking time for investments to repay, what goes to reputedly fairly exchange the increase profile adjusting for comps via probably four, 5, or 6 features over the following couple of quarters? and the way lengthy do you proceed to are expecting to make investments, i.e., have drive on working margins, primarily in utility and GBS going forward? thank you.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    good enough. Thanks, Toni. i'll take the first a part of that, after which i could examine Jim for the 2d part of the question. So, Toni, there may be three ingredients of it.

    First, let me renowned, sure, their boom fees ought to enrich, so absolute confidence about it. They are not asserting we're executed. The three elements in an effort to make a contribution to the boom fee -- and that i feel loads of what you were pointing to was toward the application increase cost. i may say it comes from three things.

    One, we're seeing advancements in their biological, that means the application they have already got. They continue to see that. They expect that if you want to Strengthen the application increase prices through a number of points. I may not in fact say the upper band as a result of I do not expect that the three facets i discussed, all of them, will all return at their higher band.

    So, as an example, 1 or 2 features from the organic growth rate. Two, they can continue to make acquisitions. So now not best do the ones they now have made retain contributing as a result of they are growing to be well into double-digit boom costs or the new ones they make will additionally make a contribution to that. suppose of that to be in the same latitude.

    The third one, as we're making a lot of alterations in their earnings compensation, as well as in the make-up of their earnings crew, they talk in regards to the garages. They discuss customer success managers leading to extra experiential and greater technical selling. They believe that'll drive more advantageous deployment and hence, faster purchases in that phase. And so, all of those together will contribute toward a a good deal-superior increase fee within the software section as much as the mid-single digit as I feel you might be pointing out in a few of your math.

    i'm now not going to debate is it 3%, 4%, or 5%. happy to try this when they have a bit of more time. and i'll pass it over to Jim for the second part of the query.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief financial Officer

    To that element, I cannot resist however go into the numbers. So, let's just -- Toni, exceptional query. thank you very lots. Let's focus on this quarter.

    once more, IBM ex-Kyndryl delivered about 2% increase. by the way, it's an accelerating trend as they spoke of in the organized remarks from about flat throughout the first half to now growing to be 2%. sure, off a simpler evaluate, they well known that. however let's take a look at the revenue contribution analysis of what contributed to that 2 features, and now i could tie it back to what they stated on October 4 as their mid-single-digit boom expense mannequin.

    We stated throughout their three segments, first, they now have an improving growth profile as they shift to bigger value, bigger boom markets over 70% of their business in application and in Consulting, which, by the way, additionally incorporates a higher cost ordinary profits flow, that those two segments will contribute all 5 facets of IBM's increase, incidentally, with enhancing working margins, which i'll get into at the conclusion. The infrastructure phase, which is high-value, mission-crucial overlaying their mainframe enterprise and infrastructure assist enterprise, become projected to be flat over time as it follows innovation cycle. So, as they deliver out innovation subsequent yr, they firmly consider and confident that we'll develop there. however over a three-yr length, it's about flat however a major cash generator.

    So, you bought two boom vectors, one value vector, two delivering growth, one offering money era. Now let's look at how the third quarter performed out. in opposition t that 70-plus percent of their two increase vectors that targeted a 5-point contribution, they delivered four.5 elements of revenue boom to IBM. They fell about 0.5 aspect brief, and that is the reason within the software area as a result of they overachieved in GBS.

    we now have a strong booklet of business in GBS, now IBM Consulting, and they see that continuing to play out. They received work to do on application, but we're making underlying business efficiency as a result of, as you all understand, you see the statistics. Their deferred income tailwind dissipates over time. And they misplaced about 1 point of increase in utility just because of the deferred profits tailwind, which means that the underlying company of their seasoned forma IBM software continues to enhance.

    Why do they think assured relocating ahead? just including to one of the most aspects of Arvind, number 1, now they have been five quarters in a row now with powerful renewal prices. 80% of their software enterprise is recurring profits, excessive-cost habitual earnings. and you see that in their deferred revenue and deferred earnings steadiness up $800 million 12 months over yr. quantity two, they see great acceleration in ARR.

    And incidentally, NRR north of one hundred% once again for the third consecutive quarter. And we're beginning to see satisfactory acceleration in Cloud Paks. And most importantly, as they noted three quarters in the past, they at the moment are starting to enter the early components of their ELA cycle. to be able to continue into 2022 and the first half of 2023.

    So, they suppose pretty confident concerning the two increase vectors. where they neglected is, in line with being on the lower back end of a extremely a success mainframe cycle, the infrastructure segment took 2.5 elements of boom far from IBM ex-Kyndryl. So plus 4.5 features towards the goal of 5%, they misplaced 2.5 features in infrastructure. And so that you can reasonable out over time as they convey new innovation.

    and then finally, simply wrapping up, in your working margin remark, they mentioned getting into this 12 months, two most vital measures, revenue increase, free cash move era. We're achieving on both of those. They talked about that free money move era became going to be essential as a result of they needed to gas investment in innovation and in IBM Consulting as a result of they noticed effective demand. We're taking part in that out consciously.

    we will see that increase as they get into 2022, but we're nevertheless using that cash. and that i'll wrap up, year thus far through third quarter, growing profits, transforming into salary ex-Kyndryl at constant currency. We're becoming gross and pre-tax bucks. We're becoming pre-tax margin, and we're turning out to be trailing twelve months free cash movement.

    So it's the mannequin that they put in region, and they consider pretty confident as they enter 2022.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    thank you, Toni. Victor, may they please take the next question?


    Our next query comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    sure, thanks. Arvind, you referenced the positives in Kyndryl and hardware in the quarter, but software performance became additionally light of expectations. So, are you able to focus on what drove the shortfall in Cloud and Cognitive utility and the place you see opportunities for more desirable execution within that utility business?

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    sure. Thanks, Katy. sure, definitely, as -- basically, even Jim mentioned that they fell perhaps 0.5 factor short of their own expectations, and they might have accomplished more desirable. right here is the place I see it doing improved.

    First, the one which performed precisely in line with what they wanted was pink Hat. purple Hat gave us 17%, which is relatively much what they wanted and anticipated. If I now study their Transaction Processing Platform, it became a bit bit below what they wish as a result of we've been saying that, in an extended-time period mannequin, that may still be extra mid-single-digit decliner. but this quarter, it was a excessive single-digit decliner.

    We suppose that as they get previous because that's coupled, i would not call it similar, nevertheless it is coupled to one of the most infrastructure cycles, I are expecting that to come back lower back beginning in early '22 or maybe late in '21. Then on their class it truly is nowadays called AI applications, they have been minus 1%. There, i'd are expecting us to get returned to mid-single-digit increase. Now you type of say, if I put all of it together, can they expect to see a tiny bit -- I name it a tiny little bit of pausing from individuals as a result of every little thing occurring? yes.

    Two, we're turning their incentive models. I spoke on it on the prior query very in short. Their incentive fashions for their earnings groups are going to be very heavily tuned towards utility going ahead in '22. That, I accept as true with, will outcomes in enhanced -- a lot better performance because the simplest method that they'll get anywhere near the goal incentives is to make their application number.

    it really is probably for the first time that that is been genuine in an extended, long time at IBM. So, Katy, this is variety of my view on what happened there and the way they will Strengthen going forward.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice president of Investor members of the family

    Thanks, Katy. Let's go to the subsequent question, please. 


    Our subsequent query comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open.

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    whats up, thanks. it's respectable to talk to you all. i needed to ask on the GBS aspect. in order that did speed up double-digit revenue boom.

    appears like fourth quarter, you expect that, too, but it did come at a far better can charge. So, i am simply curious on the gross margin percentage entrance. So, i'm curious, some of the self assurance so that you can reprice to offset the bigger can charge of birth, is there chance that these fees could persist right here given the entire demand side that you just're seeing? thanks.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vp and Chief economic Officer

    Yeah. Tien-Tsin, here is Jim. i'll take that as they circulate forward. As I brought up prior and Arvind commented within the prepared remarks, they do see a really amazing demand atmosphere accessible.

    As they have been going through fourth quarter, they called a really mindful method. GBS, now IBM Consulting, again, performs a extremely vital function to their hybrid cloud platform-centric company mannequin. Why? because it drives scale and adoption to their platform, and it also pulls IBM technology while taking competencies of the ecosystem and partnership and talent and capacity. So, they all started aggressively including ability, potential, abilities, ecosystem partnerships, and scaling acquisitions.

    I suppose they just introduced these days their eighth GBS acquisition in the remaining one year ordinary. So, it turned into a conscious approach. And they consider that that flywheel effect of GBS that turns into the multiplier of driving their platform, pulling their software, and driving a extremely powerful economic equation for their ecosystem companions is basic in their lengthy-time period strategy. Now with that said, they noticed margins down 310 groundwork aspects.

    We noticed pre-tax margins down 110 foundation elements. inside that, although, they grew gross profit bucks, and they grew pre-tax dollars. We're about producing boom in good line and round generating money contribution. And GBS delivered that these days.

    i'd also point out that GBS accelerated their margins quarter to quarter enormously. Pretax margins have been up 5 points quarter to quarter, and they've been accelerating their gross margins sequentially every single quarter this year. So, they delivered over 13 features of pre-tax margin within the third quarter; and their model, as they pointed out on October 4, became low young adults. So, they feel fairly comfy.

    We see a great book of enterprise, and they proceed to peer, in fourth quarter, IBM Consulting delivering double-digit income increase and margin dollar and income dollar and money greenback contribution while pulling their software and hybrid cloud platform.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    Thanks, Tien-Tsin. Let's go to the subsequent query, please.


    Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup. Your line is open.

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    thank you very a good deal. My query, considering the fact that lots of them were answered, there is only one of them, and that's the have an impact on of larger labor prices. No be counted the place you look, labor charges are going greater. and i do see that for your organized slides that you just did provide that your signings were up three%.

    So, may still they suppose about, as time rolls forward, you will put into effect extra labor charges that increase and go better? Or are they really fabric satisfactory so they should still be modeling some changes into your money flows? Or how may still they form of consider about that as you're employed throughout the enterprise since it's a stunning dynamic and fluid circumstance with labor prices? thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    So, Jim, outstanding query. And by the way, i might let you know that I don't think that this 12 months is unique. possibly there's a dash extra considerations going on, but I do not feel it's wonderful. I be aware 2001 really smartly.

    I be aware 2007 just earlier than the fiscal crisis. this is a continuous film within the expertise trade. Now you observed the 3% signings boom. i wouldn't appear on the 3%.

    i would study their ebook-to-bill ratio, which is 1.1. And so, e-book-to-invoice offers a better sign of what the demand is for their ahead-looking earnings and demand in their IBM Consulting company. Now, seem, labor needs to be managed. we've a world labor model.

    We put people everywhere. And as Jim simply mentioned in solutions to the prior query that, yes, if you happen to do have inflation for your labor cost, there's an element of it it truly is going to rate via for that facet of the company. In all of the relaxation of the enterprise, definitely, i am no longer so concerned about labor charge. i am involved about getting the appropriate skill probably, but that is all the time a be concerned that I have, and that i've been paranoid about that for 30 years.

    that is no longer enjoyable. and that i suppose it be corresponding to many of your agencies, Jim, like now not simply yours however your whole colleagues here on this call. The right skill is much more crucial, and their labor charge is essential. in the conclusion of the day, or not it's maybe 15%, 20% of the entire cost and expense it's kind of critical toward the different groups because you can manipulate the leisure.

    So, web answer to you is, no, or not it's no longer some thing that needs to be modeled in. I do not agree with so. but they all the time must be anxious about it in terms of how will they price, how can they get the labor pools, the place do they put the labor pools, and all of these aspects.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor relations

    staggering. thank you, Jim. Let's go to the next question, please.


    Our subsequent question comes from Keith Bachman, bank of Montreal. Your line is open.

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    hello. Many thanks for taking the question. i wished to ask first on Cloud Paks that you simply seem to be suggesting that here's going to be a key or probably the most many enablers to force boom. and that i turned into hoping you could explain a little bit why Cloud Paks since it sounds very akin to bundling, which IBM and many organizations had been doing for years.

    So, want to are trying to take note a bit bit why Cloud Pak is different from the historic bundling that IBM has been doing. and then second, if I may just ask, Jim, a question I've asked before is on application preservation. a good quarter on handy compares and i just desired to get your concepts on the durability of the application renovation, not whether it be essential. however is it, in reality, a boom class as they seem to be out within GBS over the next two years, three years? Many thanks.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief government Officer

    adequate. So, Keith, i may take the first part of that query on Cloud Paks. So, Cloud Paks aren't just bundled. they may be now not just containerizing software.

    i could inform you appropriate away, if all you do is bundled application, you're going to definitely get a value deflation. If all you do is containerized software, there will be no plus or minus. it be just a different way of providing it. So i may take some of the Cloud Paks and maybe use it as a short illustration.

    If I take their Cloud Pak for facts, if I now flip around and inform you that even if they take some of their integration software or even if they take a database software like Db2, and that's the reason all you supply through that, you're right, it's neither plus nor minus. I suppose it's going to dwell the place it is. however, it be now not just putting these in as alternatives. a lot of the Cloud Pak for statistics is basically new innovation.

    It contains methods round data material. It includes methods round how do you federate records both from public clouds and from different repositories that are doubtless no longer IBMs inside the client's on-premise atmosphere. It contains the information catalog. It consists of these methods to be in a position to do some competition without even relocating the data.

    That new content introduced to some of the current content, so they take potential of their incumbency, however they get lift as a result of there is extra usage usual for these applied sciences than there became earlier than, is why we're so enthusiastic about Cloud Paks and the place it gives us each. yes, a few of it is barely going to be a circulate, but a lot of it's in reality increased usage. And expectantly, that form of made the illustration clear on how we're driving innovation into the portfolio with that one example. So Jim, i could supply it to you to address the -- I have no idea no matter if to raise protection in ARR or NRR.

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice chairman and Chief monetary Officer

    I suppose, Keith -- and that i'm interpreting your query given you applied it to GBS, and we've had this discussion many quarters appropriately so, and you're speaking about utility management functions, AMS. If i'm not answering the correct query, please get back to Patricia, and they will movement forward from there. however AMS, as now they have spoke of for a handful of quarters, they obtained back to boom, up 5%, accelerated that growth, albeit, as they stated within the organized remarks, off a plenty less demanding evaluate all the way through the top of the pandemic closing year in third quarter. however it turned into up this quarter as they had increase in choices, which modernize the customer's functions and as they move them to a hybrid cloud.

    We noted their utility management having a tremendous incumbency price in a hybrid cloud platform-centric model. Why? as a result of what they have now considered and realized over the remaining two-plus years after the acquisition of red Hat is that, one, they now have constructed up a $3.5 billion publication of company round their red Hat follow in GBS from a lifeless beginning right through the acquisition. And they developed that up. Of that $three.5 billion, over three-quarters of that booklet of business is in AMS money owed.

    2nd, AMS -- excuse me, GBS riding that flywheel effect I observed previous is really -- promises over one-third of their cloud revenue -- Cloud Pak salary growth each and every quarter, and within that, eighty% are AMS bills. So, there is a causality and a correlation right here between their effective incumbency base, us having business business method competencies and the technical skills to be the client's relied on partner. To circulate them along their journey to cloud, AMS is a very essential part. So, they saw respectable growth.

    And incidentally, their penetration of AMS cloud endeavor, be aware, they spoke of during the past this predominantly being an on-prem enterprise software concentration problem. They proceed to make progress. We're -- about near forty% of their AMS company is now cloud, and we're capitalizing on pink Hat. We're catalyzing on utility modernization.

    And we're capitalizing on very robust ecosystem partnerships with SAP S/4HANA, to identify one, as they flow forward.

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    Very respectable. thanks, Keith. Victor, let's take one final question.


    definitely, their remaining question comes from David Grossman with Stifel. Your line is open.

    David Grossman -- Stifel monetary Corp. -- Analyst

    thanks, and thanks for squeezing me in right here. just two in reality short ones. First, how lots, if any, of the income with Kyndryl is pastime-based mostly, which can be dependent on their personal execution? and then secondly, Jim, you mentioned the ELA cycle setting out, I suppose, early 2022. in all probability you might share with us simply how a great deal of a headwind or not it's been and which segments or not it's impacted most.


    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief financial Officer

    David, thank you very tons for the question. I consider i'll take each, and then Arvind can wrap it up here standard. First, round Kyndryl. So, if you go lower back to October four, on the Investor Day, which they were relatively clear, and they said they will proceed that transparency into 2022 across the external income with the mighty strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl, they said about, on a full-12 months basis, $2.5 billion, provide or take.

    And in 2022, should you received 12 months versus two months in 2021, it would be about $2 billion of incremental or about three elements. within that, David, the vast majority of it really is in application. And a majority of this is annuitized-based mostly excessive-cost, mission-critical-based mostly routine income. So, if you are considering can they have any deflationary affects around that $2-plus billion on the application facet, which includes the majority of it, no.

    The 2d component is they now have about -- annualized about $0.5 billion concerning their infrastructure aid and hardware. On the infrastructure aid, it be again an annuitized-based enterprise normal. And concerning hardware, in their strategic relationship, as they set Kyndryl up, now they have given them a beautiful aggressive and element of aged stock refresh program, so they now have little or no hardware purchases over probably the subsequent 18 months to 2 years given they just went through a huge asset refresh. So long answer to your query, but I do not believe they now have loads of influence relocating ahead in opposition t that.

    2d, around the ELA cycle, you comprehend this rather well. it's usually a 3-plus 12 months. The dynamics of client buying behaviors trade over time, however they consider very assured. The first rate news is here is they have loads of headroom.

    We're simply beginning the early a part of that in fourth quarter. if you want to predominantly play out in 2022 and then will additionally prolong early into 2023 as they circulation forward. And if you analyze their transactional-connected undertaking, we've got been making amazing performance growth in their annuitized-based business with the renewal charges, and their on-prem transactional company has struggled, mainly all the way through the pandemic. this may bolster that as they flow ahead.

    And most significantly, they feel assured within the investments in innovation and what we're bringing to market with their modernized and containerized Cloud Pak choices optimized on appropriate of their hybrid cloud purple Hat platform that we're respectable. So, with that, let me flip it over to Arvind.

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief govt Officer

    Thanks, Jim. look, first, i'd want to thank all of you for your questions. i assumed they were in reality stepping into the details; and expectantly, their answers helped you take into account their enterprise a lot better. Let me simply make a few feedback to wrap it up.

    i hope you took away is that they proceed to make this progress this quarter within the key areas. both myself and Jim highlighted them in their key areas of boom and in their price vectors as they go ahead, certainly searching into '23. however we'll also renowned that they always have more to do. Importantly, they are on the brink of the IBM of the longer term, and they are expecting to exit the yr competent that promises on their mid-time period model starting in 2022.

    it really is the sustainable mid-single-digit revenue boom and the increasing free cash flow that fuels all the investments. So, with that, I appear ahead to speaking to all of you once again.

    Patricia Murphy -- vice chairman of Investor members of the family

    Arvind, thanks. Victor, let me flip it again to you to close out the call.


    [Operator signoff]

    length: 67 minutes

    call participants:

    Patricia Murphy -- vp of Investor members of the family

    Arvind Krishna -- Chairman and Chief executive Officer

    Jim Kavanaugh -- Senior vice president and Chief economic Officer

    Wamsi Mohan -- financial institution of america Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

    Toni Sacconaghi -- AB Bernstein -- Analyst

    Katy Huberty -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

    Tien-Tsin Huang -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

    Jim Suva -- Citigroup -- Analyst

    Keith Bachman -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

    David Grossman -- Stifel financial Corp. -- Analyst

    greater IBM analysis

    All profits name transcripts

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